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Myanmar taking baby steps toward reform

Myanmar may seem to be stuck in a political impasse with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest, but behind the scenes the junta appears to be working toward democratic reforms by 2006, analysts say.

The generals' slow and reluctant efforts will not produce a truly democratic state, but they could begin a shift away from more than 40 years of military rule and a degree of power-sharing with political parties, they say.

After his surprise appointment as prime minister in August, the regime's number-three General Khin Nyunt announced a new reform "road map" including a convention to write a new constitution and "free and fair" elections.

His initiative was hailed by neighboring governments who are anxious to encourage The junta's baby steps toward democracy, but dismissed in the West as a smokescreen that failed to include any mention of Suu Kyi.

The skepticism was magnified by the fact the road map was announced shortly after the government launched a crackdown on the pro-democracy opposition including the arrest of its leaders and the closure of its offices nationwide.

However, six months after the May 30 attack on opposition supporters by a pro-junta gang triggered the crackdown, experts say Khin Nyunt has been assigned the job of moving the country ahead, even at a snail's pace, and that he is taking the job seriously.

"I am convinced that this government is very serious about this plan, and that Khin Nyunt intends to carry out the process of a national convention and elections," said Morten Pedersen, a Myanmar researcher from the Australian National University.

Pedersen said he expected the government to begin organizing the constitutional convention by early next year, and that the timing was tied with its membership in ASEAN.

"The timeframe is unclear, but my feeling is that Khin Nyunt, at least, is aware of the dilemma Burma's ASEAN presidency in 2006 presents for the grouping and aims to have at least a constitution in place, and possibly even elections, before that date," he said, referring to the country by its former name.

ASEAN is anxious that Myanmar, the most controversial and troublesome of its 10 member states, puts on a more presentable face when it takes up the group's revolving presidency.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has also seized on the 2006 date as a deadline for democratic reforms in Myanmar.

"But this does not necessarily mean a democracy in a western sense; they themselves call it a disciplined democracy," Pedersen noted.

Another leading political expert here said the ASEAN presidency "will force Yangon to move."

"And this could mean a very busy schedule with a national convention as soon as 2004, then a new constitution, then the election," he said.

The first national convention, convened in 1993 to write a constitution, was suspended in 1996 after Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) withdrew on the grounds it was unrepresentative.

This time around, the question of who attends the convention from the pro-democracy opposition and ethnic parties will be critical to its success.

But it remains unclear if the ruling generals will be willing to provide the conditions that would make it acceptable for the NLD and others to come on board.

Yangon-based diplomats believe that despite being under house arrest since the end of September, Aung San Suu Kyi is communicating with the generals through a liaison officer who she sees at will, and the two sides are discussing the convention.

Myanmar's deputy foreign minister Khin Maung Win last month told the BBC that the government was having regular and positive contacts with the Nobel peace laureate.

"Some of the military would like to sideline Aung San Suu Kyi, but some would not as they understand she has to be part of the process," Pedersen said.

On the weekend, the state press announced that the Kachin Independence Organization would take part in the convention. The announcement was significant because the Kachin Independence Army, the ethnic group's armed wing, refused to take part in the first convention.

"The junta is clearly already working hard to gather parties and ethnic minority groups to be able to present something that seems viable," said one western diplomat.
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