UK Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon's future now looks in doubt amid signs that he will be offered up as a sacrificial lamb when Lord Hutton publishes his report at the end of the official inquiry into the apparent suicide of bioweapons expert David Kelly.
Aides to the Hoon went out of their way Sunday evening to deny he is planning to "carry the can" for the government scientist's death. One ally said sources who were reported in the Sunday Telegraph newspaper as saying that Hoon would "fall on his sword" to protect the prime minister, had "got too much sun."
Despite the aides' efforts to protect Hoon -- a move that was not repeated by the Ministry of Defense press office which merely described the reports as "purely speculative" -- his allies know he is in deep trouble.
The revelation that he overruled Sir Kevin Tebbit, the most senior civil servant in his department, to order Kelly to appear in public before members of parliament (MPs) cast Hoon as a ruthless operator with apparently no feelings for the troubled scientist.
Allies hope that Hoon, whose office memorably declared that it would be "presentationally" difficult to block Kelly's appearance before MPs, will escape censure by Lord Hutton on this point because of the legal convention that people should be judged on their decisions at the time they were taken.
"If Geoff had said that Dr. Kelly should not have appeared in public in front of MPs that would have opened him to charges that he had something to hide and had no respect for parliament," one ally said.
Unfortunately for Hoon his future is likely to be decided in the poisonous political climate created by Kelly's death. One ally declared that "Geoff is damned either way" over his decision to overrule Sir Kevin.
Certainly, Hoon, once regarded as one of Prime Minister Tony Blair's most trusted allies, will struggle to escape criticism for what some Labour backbenchers have depicted as a poor performance following Kelly's death.
Described by one commentator as "chronically tone deaf" politically, Hoon has made a series of faux pas which a more nimble-footed politician might have avoided.
His almost uncanny ability to misread a sensitive political moment was highlighted when he appeared in public at the British grand prix at Silverstone within days of Kelly's death.
Summoned by Kelly's widow, Janice, three days later on July 23, he attempted to ease himself back into the spotlight by dropping in on a Foreign Office press conference the following day.
His strategy backfired when the press conference collapsed amid chaotic scenes after he failed to answer the inevitable questions about his role in naming Kelly.
By now Hoon realized he was in severe difficulty, a point underlined when he was involved in a fracas with a photographer outside his home the following day.
His status as a politician who can do no right was confirmed when he came under attack for refusing to abandon his summer holiday to attend Kelly's funeral, even though he had informed Mrs. Kelly that he did not want to lose precious time with his family.
Should Hoon find himself the main political victim of the Hutton inquiry, a surprisingly large number of Labour backbenchers are likely to mourn the departure of a man they have grown to admire for the way he has eschewed the smart metropolitan set.
Blair's office might be relieved were Hoon's departure to offer a degree of protection for the prime minister. On the other hand, Hoon would be yet another Blairite who has fallen by the wayside, leaving the prime minister's inner circle to wonder whether there are any left.
The end of Hoon's ministerial career would mean that Lord Falconer, the lord chancellor, and Tessa Jowell, the culture secretary, would be the only true Blairites left in the Cabinet. While Blair has mended relations with Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, the delicate balance between Blairites and Brownites has now swung in favor of the chancellor.
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