A crisis between the US and China over Taiwan could affect US interests next year, according to a survey released by a US think tank on Wednesday, although it said it was not very likely.
In the annual Preventive Priorities Survey released by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action (CPA), US foreign policy experts assessed the likelihood and effect of 30 potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate next year.
The CPA then categorized the scenarios under three tiers — high, moderate and low — in order of priority for US leaders.
One of the 30 contingencies identified was “a crisis between the United States and China over Taiwan, as a result of China’s intensifying political and economic pressure surrounding Taiwan’s elections in 2020.”
The survey said that the likelihood of such a scenario was “low,” but if it did occur the impact on the US would be “moderate,” so it was categorized a Tier II concern.
Another contingency of concern to the US was an armed confrontation over disputed maritime areas in the South China Sea between China and other regional claimants, the survey said.
Taiwan claims parts of the South China Sea, as does Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Such a confrontation was listed as a Tier I issue, as it would highly affect US interests and the likelihood of it occurring was moderate, the survey said.
In this year’s survey, the top homeland security concerns for the US were a highly disruptive cyberattack on critical infrastructure, including electoral systems, and a mass-casualty terrorist attack.
The US’ biggest concerns overseas were listed as a confrontation with Iran, North Korea or China in the South China Sea, the report said.
Since 2008, the CPA has been issuing the annual report in which foreign policy experts are asked to rank 30 ongoing or potential conflicts, based on how likely they are to occur or escalate in the next year and their possible effect on US interests.
Eight Chinese naval vessels and 24 military aircraft were detected crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait between 6am yesterday and 6am today, the Ministry of National Defense said this morning. The aircraft entered Taiwan’s northern, central, southwestern and eastern air defense identification zones, the ministry said. The armed forces responded with mission aircraft, naval vessels and shore-based missile systems to closely monitor the situation, it added. Eight naval vessels, one official ship and 36 aircraft sorties were spotted in total, the ministry said.
INCREASED CAPACITY: The flights on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays would leave Singapore in the morning and Taipei in the afternoon Singapore Airlines is adding four supplementary flights to Taipei per week until May to meet increased tourist and business travel demand, the carrier said on Friday. The addition would raise the number of weekly flights it operates to Taipei to 18, Singapore Airlines Taiwan general manager Timothy Ouyang (歐陽漢源) said. The airline has recorded a steady rise in tourist and business travel to and from Taipei, and aims to provide more flexible travel arrangements for passengers, said Ouyang, who assumed the post in July last year. From now until Saturday next week, four additional flights would depart from Singapore on Monday, Wednesday, Friday
The Ministry of National Defense yesterday reported the return of large-scale Chinese air force activities after their unexplained absence for more than two weeks, which had prompted speculation regarding Beijing’s motives. China usually sends fighter jets, drones and other military aircraft around the nation on a daily basis. Interruptions to such routine are generally caused by bad weather. The Ministry of National Defense said it had detected 26 Chinese military aircraft in the Taiwan Strait over the previous 24 hours. It last reported that many aircraft on Feb. 25, when it spotted 30 aircraft, saying Beijing was carrying out another “joint combat
Taiwan successfully defended its women’s 540 kilogram title and won its first-ever men’s 640 kg title at the 2026 World Indoor Tug of War Championships in Taipei yesterday. In the women’s event, Taiwan’s eight-person squad reached the final following a round-robin preliminary round and semifinals featuring teams from Ukraine, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, the Basque Country and South Korea. In the finals, they swept the Basque team 2-0, giving the team composed mainly of National Taiwan Normal University students and graduates its second championship in a row, and its fourth in five years. Team captain
RSS