Beijing is likely to attempt to poach more of Taiwan’s allies in the coming days, and make military threats against the nation, as it prepares to celebrate 70 years of Chinese Communist Party rule, two professors said on Saturday.
The moves would be an attempt to discredit the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), who is seeking re-election, said Hung Chin-fu (洪敬富), a political science professor at National Cheng Kung University.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) originally wanted this year’s Chinese National Day on Oct. 1 to be a celebration of his party’s achievements over the past 70 years, but he is now beleaguered by a spate of problems, Hung said.
China is facing an economic slowdown due to the ongoing US-China trade dispute, protests in Hong Kong have persisted for three months and pork prices in China have soared due to an outbreak of African swine fever, he said, adding that Xi hopes to distract people from these problems by increasing pressure on Taiwan.
Xi would likely focus on China’s economic achievements and appeal to Taiwanese to “be patriotic” and to “come together as one race,” while making threats against “separatists who want to split up the ‘motherland,’” Hung said.
The Chinese military might also conduct drills near Taiwan, with the aim of threatening the Taiwanese public, but such threats would likely only spur a response from the US, he said.
“Taiwan will absolutely not be swallowed up by Beijing,” Hung said.
The US has already expressed its dissatisfaction over the Solomon Islands cutting ties with Taipei on Monday in favor of Beijing, and US Vice President Mike Pence refused to meet with Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare as a result, he said.
Despite the US’ response, China poached a second former Taiwanese ally, Kiribati, he added.
Domestic and international problems have made Xi’s hold on power unstable, said Chen Shih-min (陳世民), an associate professor of political science at National Taiwan University.
Whether Taiwan faces a “domino effect” of allies breaking ties remains to be seen, he said.
However, the US has considerable influence in Haiti, the Marshall Islands and Nauru, and would likely act to prevent them from severing ties with Taipei in favor of China, Chen said.
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