President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would beat Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) by a small margin in next year’s presidential election if they are the only candidates, a poll released by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation showed yesterday.
In a two-way presidential race between Tsai of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) Han — both of whom won their party primaries — 45 percent of voters would cast their ballot for Tsai, while 40.1 percent would back Han, the poll showed.
Yet, if Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) joined the race, the margin between Tsai and Han would be reduced to within the margin of error, it showed.
Photo: Fang Pin-chao, Taipei Times
In a three-way race between Tsai, Han and Ko, 33.5 percent of respondents said they would vote for Han, while 32.6 percent would back Tsai and 25.5 percent would support Ko, the poll showed.
In a four-way presidential race between Tsai, Han, Ko and Gou, 29.7 percent of voters would choose Tsai, 29.3 percent would back Han, 18.3 percent would support Ko and 15.9 percent would prefer Gou, it showed.
Compared with poll results released by the foundation last month, Tsai’s lead over Han has decreased.
Tsai led Han by more than five percentage points in both a two-way and three-way race, the previous poll showed.
Tsai’s job approval rate declined by nearly five percentage points from 47.7 percent last month to 42.8 percent, the poll showed.
Approval for Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) dropped from 52.4 percent last month to 48 percent, it showed.
Forty percent of respondents identified themselves as supporters of the DPP, while 38.8 percent said they supported the KMT and 17.5 percent said they are independent voters, the foundation said.
Tsai’s lead over Han in a two-way race is a not strong, foundation chairman Michael You (游盈隆) said, adding that if Ko joins the election, the margin between them makes it unclear who would win.
The election would be further complicated if Gou runs as an independent, You said.
While poll results suggest that Gou would have the lowest support rate of the four, he could draw votes from Han and Ko, giving Tsai an advantage, he said.
Whether Ko and Gou would join the race is an important factor, he said.
The poll, conducted from Monday to Tuesday last week, gathered 1,089 valid samples and has a margin of error of 2.97 percentage points.
Separately yesterday, Ko said a new poll showing that his approval rate is better than Tsai’s was intended to lure him into the race.
The poll by Want Want China Times Media Group showed that if Ko runs for president against Tsai and Han, his approval would be second behind Han.
“The China Times is trying to lure me into running for president,” Ko told reporters.
Asked to comment on former New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu’s (朱立倫) remark that the KMT would be doomed in the election if Gou runs as an independent, Ko said it would be okay if the KMT were doomed, but Taiwan cannot be doomed.
Additional reporting by Lee I-chia
921 EARTHQUAKE: The magnitude 7.3 quake left 2,456 people dead and 10,718 injured, while 53,661 houses were fully destroyed and 53,024 houses damaged The Central Weather Bureau yesterday received about 50,000 views on Facebook after it posted the data that it collected on Sept. 21, 1999, when the nation was devastated by a magnitude 7.3 earthquake. The data showed that the 921 Earthquake hit the nation at 1:47am, with the epicenter being 7km southwest of the bureau’s quake detection center in Nantou County’s Yuchi Township (魚池) at a depth of 8km. The quake left 2,456 people dead and 10,718 injured, while 53,661 houses were fully destroyed and 53,024 houses damaged, with the cost of the damage estimated at NT$300 billion (US$10.8 billion at the current
British newspaper The Mail on Sunday reported that Prince Charles met with Bruno Wang (汪家興), a Taiwanese fugitive who describes himself as a Chinese philanthropist and donated ￡500,000 (US$683,522) to the prince’s charity, the Prince’s Foundation. The newspaper reported that Wang is wanted in Taiwan on charges related to money laundering and being a fugitive from justice, allegations he denies, and drew comparisons between Wang and the Russian banker Dmitry Leus. Investigation and cooperation with foreign authorities have found that Bruno Wang’s father, Andrew Wang (汪傳浦), had stashed proceeds from a scandal involving the procurement of Lafayette frigates in 61 bank accounts,
AT ODDS: The KMT called on the government to seek bilateral dialogue with Beijing to resolve the issue that led to the ban on custard apple and wax apple imports Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officials and lawmakers yesterday condemned China’s sudden ban on imports of custard apples and wax apples from Taiwan as “obvious political retaliation,” while the opposition called for a scientific investigation into Beijing’s claim to have found pests in imports of the fruits. China earlier yesterday announced a ban on the importation of the two fruits from today, citing repeated discoveries of Planococcus minor, a type of mealybug. The announcement follows a similar ban on Taiwanese pineapples imposed in February. At least Beijing gave a few days’ notice when it banned pineapple imports, an unnamed government official said yesterday. This time
BY OTHER MEANS: China could see CPTPP membership as a means of circumventing trade restrictions imposed by the US, amid an ongoing trade dispute between them The US could invoke a clause in its trade agreement with Canada and Mexico to block China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a government official said yesterday. Under Article 32.10 of the Exceptions and General Provisions of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), if either Canada or Mexico enter a free-trade agreement with a nonmarket economy — such as China — the US could withdraw from the agreement. “If that clause applies to multilateral free-trade agreements such as the CPTPP — which Mexico and Canada are members of — that might be cause for the two