A future Chinese attack on Taiwan could be fueled by Russian arms and Russian military technology, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
According to the report, entitled Russia’s Contribution to China’s Surface Warfare Capabilities, Moscow has transferred more than US$30 billion worth of arms and military technology to Beijing since 1991.
The pace of transfers “quickened” after the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis which “lent an increased sense of urgency” to China’s military modernization, the report said.
Written by CSIS arms expert Paul Schwartz, the report said that Russian weapons systems and related technology have proven especially important for the development of China’s navy.
“Incorporation of Russian air defense technology, long-range sensors and anti-ship cruise missile systems has enabled China’s maritime forces to significantly improve their defensive and offensive capabilities,” Schwartz wrote.
Russian arms and technology transfers would be “crucial” to China’s anti-access strategy of keeping the US navy at bay in the case of an attack on Taiwan, the report said.
“If successful, China’s anti-access strategy will give its military the freedom to conduct military operations within the contested maritime region as needed to achieve its strategic objectives,” the report said.
“In a future conflict over Taiwan, China’s military leaders would need to deploy forces capable of preventing US carrier strike groups from intervening in the conflict,” it added.
Should China attempt to take Taiwan by force, it not only must keep US forces from intervening at the outset, but also must seize local control of the Taiwan Strait and surrounding seas “in order to conduct expeditionary operations against Taiwan itself,” the report said, adding that China must also maintain local control for the long term if it expects to hold on to Taiwan once it is taken.
To achieve these goals China would rely on Russian weapons and technology.
“Russia has engaged in large-scale arms sales, delivering sophisticated destroyers, advanced weapon systems, radar systems and various components that have been incorporated into indigenous Chinese weapons,” the report said.
Like many Chinese military systems, its domestically built destroyers lean heavily on technology and design expertise acquired through Russian arms imports.
Recently, China has started developing a new generation of supersonic Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCM) which all appear to be copies or derivatives of previously transferred Russian ASCMs.
Moscow has become increasingly frustrated by China’s reverse engineering practices, which Russia deems abusive, the report said.
“Nevertheless, China continues to utilize Russian equipment and technology in many of the most crucial areas and Russia continues to sell such systems to China,” the report said.
China hopes to take advantage of Russia’s diminished bargaining power as a result of the Ukraine crisis to obtain good terms on future arms deals, the report said.
At the same time, China wants only the most advanced systems in Russia’s inventory and “will seek technology transfers as a condition of additional purchases,” the report said.
Several large-scale arms transactions that have been in the works for several years are finally moving toward completion in part because of the changed international landscape created by the Ukraine crisis, the report said.
These deals include potential sales of the S-400 air defense system, Su-35BM fighter aircraft and LADA class diesel-electric submarines.
The report concludes: “Prospects for increased arms sales from Russia to China seem greater now than they have been in many years.”
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