The nation’s weather patterns could become ever more extreme, with “dry seasons getting drier and rainy seasons getting wetter,” according to a research report released by Academia Sinica’s Research Center for Environmental Changes.
The report, presented on Wednesday by a team headed by Hsu Huang-hsiung (許晃雄), a fellow at the center, says the nation’s annual average temperature increased by 1.4oC between 1911 and 2009.
That figure translates into an average increase of 0.14oC every 10 years, higher than the global average of 0.074oC, the report says.
In the past three decades, from 1980 through 2009, the report says the rise in temperature has become even faster, with the figure reaching an average of 0.29oC per decade, about double the average for the past century.
Based on the data, the report says Taiwan’s temperature will continue to climb in the years ahead and it forecasts that the nation’s average temperature could surge by between 2oC and 3oC by the end of this century.
The research team also used a number of climate models to draw up projections of future climate change. These show that Taiwan could face an increased frequency of extreme high temperatures and a decreased frequency of low temperatures in the future.
These substantial increases in frequency of scorching hot days in summer will definitely have an adverse impact on energy supplies, healthcare and agricultural development, the report says.
The report says precipitation could also become more extreme in the coming decades, with severe drought in winter and torrential rain in summer.
Over the next century, the team forecasts that average winter rainfall could decrease by between 3 percent and 22 percent, while summer precipitation could increase by between 2 percent and 26 percent.
Hsu said these drastic climate changes could be attributed to both natural and human-induced factors.
“As natural factors, such as volcanic eruptions and solar variations are uncontrollable, we can only focus our efforts on human-induced factors by reducing carbon emissions and searching for alternative sources of energy,” Hsu said.
His team comprises academics and experts from the Center for Environmental Changes, the Central Weather Bureau, National Taiwan University and National Taiwan Normal University.
The team spent one year completing its report on climatic changes over the past century.
To minimize possible damage that might arise from extreme weather and climate change, Hsu said the government should take more active steps to deal with water resources management, and flood prevention and control.
As fewer typhoons hit the nation this year, the water level at the Tsengwen Reservoir in the south has fallen to an eight-year low, while water levels at other reservoirs are also barely sufficient, which Hsu said means that the nation could face yet more water shortages in the coming months.
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