A new poll suggests the gap between the presidential candidates fielded by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has shrunk to a mere 0.61 percentage points, well within the margin of error.
According to the poll conducted by the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister paper) from Monday to Wednesday, if President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the KMT, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) all participate in January’s presidential election, Ma would get 33.58 percent of the vote, Tsai 32.97 percent and Soong 11.17 percent.
If it was just the KMT and DPP tickets battling for the presidency, the poll showed that Ma’s support stood at 37.17 percent and Tsai’s stood at 36.29 percent — a gap of only 0.88 percentage points.
Photo: Lin Wen-hsiung, Taipei Times
Further cross analysis on first-time voter data suggests that Tsai has 32.02 percent support from that group, slightly leading Ma’s 31.46 percent. The addition of Soong to the race would not affect Ma’s support ratings from the group, while Tsai’s would drop to 30.34 percent and Soong would receive 10.11 percent, the poll showed.
In the 40-to-49 age group, counting only the candidates from the KMT and the DPP, the poll showed Tsai would receive 32.51 percent, lagging behind Ma’s 38.52 percent. If it is a three-way battle, it showed Tsai getting 31.97 percent, slightly behind Ma’s 35.52 percent, and that Soong would get 13.93 percent.
In terms of geographic demography, the impact of Soong joining the election on Tsai’s and Ma’s efforts was also noticeable. In northern Taiwan, where Ma holds the advantage, a two-way election scenario shows that Tsai would only get 29.24 percent of the vote in Taipei, far behind Ma’s 39.77 percent. However, in a three-way election, the poll showed Tsai getting 30.99 percent of the vote, Ma receiving 36.26 percent and Soong 12.87 percent.
In the south, the situation is reversed. The poll shows that Tsai leads Ma in Greater Kaohsiung with 43.27 percent of the vote compared with 29.24 percent, but with the addition of Soong, Tsai’s support drops to 36.26 percent, Ma’s falls to 28.07 percent and Soong receives 8.19 percent of the vote.
In the east, Soong’s influence on the election is noticeable. The poll showed that in a two-way vote in Hualien County, Ma would receive 41.67 percent of the vote and Tsai 8.33 percent. However, with the addition of Soong, while Tsai’s support does not change, Ma’s drops to 25 percent, while Soong would receive 29.17 percent.
The poll, conducted by the Liberty Times’ Poll Investigation Center, questioned 1,477 adults and it has a 2.55 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted using random samples based on the last two digits of telephone numbers.
DPP spokesperson Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁) said the DPP’s own polls also show that Tsai and Ma are neck-and-neck. The DPP would continue with its efforts to win the trust of the people, he said.
KMT Culture and Communication Committee Director Chuang Po-chun (莊伯仲) said the KMT respects any polls that are conducted using a transparent process and a thorough methodology.
According to the KMT’s own polls, “Ma still has a steady and significant lead,” Chuang said.
PFP spokesperson Wu Kun-yu (吳崑玉) said that the KMT has spread many false rumors in the past weeks, trying to choke off the PFP’s space, and that the party is working on how to break through the KMT’s “barricade.”
Translated by Jake Chung, staff writer
An increase in Taiwanese boats using China-made automatic identification systems (AIS) could confuse coast guards patrolling waters off Taiwan’s southwest coast and become a loophole in the national security system, sources familiar with the matter said yesterday. Taiwan ADIZ, a Facebook page created by enthusiasts who monitor Chinese military activities in airspace and waters off Taiwan’s southwest coast, on Saturday identified what seemed to be a Chinese cargo container ship near Penghu County. The Coast Guard Administration went to the location after receiving the tip and found that it was a Taiwanese yacht, which had a Chinese AIS installed. Similar instances had also
GOOD DIPLOMACY: The KMT has maintained close contact with representative offices in Taiwan and had extended an invitation to Russia as well, the KMT said The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) would “appropriately handle” the fallout from an invitation it had extended to Russia’s representative to Taipei to attend its international banquet last month, KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) said yesterday. US and EU representatives in Taiwan boycotted the event, and only later agreed to attend after the KMT rescinded its invitation to the Russian representative. The KMT has maintained long-term close contact with all representative offices and embassies in Taiwan, and had extended the invitation as a practice of good diplomacy, Chu said. “Some EU countries have expressed their opinions of Russia, and the KMT respects that,” he
VIGILANCE: The military is paying close attention to actions that might damage peace and stability in the region, the deputy minister of national defense said The People’s Republic of China (PRC) might consider initiating a hack on Taiwanese networks on May 20, the day of the inauguration ceremony of president-elect William Lai (賴清德), sources familiar with cross-strait issues said. While US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s statement of the US expectation “that all sides will conduct themselves with restraint and prudence in the period ahead” would prevent military actions by China, Beijing could still try to sabotage Taiwan’s inauguration ceremony, the source said. China might gain access to the video screens outside of the Presidential Office Building and display embarrassing messages from Beijing, such as congratulating Lai
Four China Coast Guard ships briefly sailed through prohibited waters near Kinmen County, Taipei said, urging Beijing to stop actions that endanger navigation safety. The Chinese ships entered waters south of Kinmen, 5km from the Chinese city of Xiamen, at about 3:30pm on Monday, the Coast Guard Administration said in a statement later the same day. The ships “sailed out of our prohibited and restricted waters” about an hour later, the agency said, urging Beijing to immediately stop “behavior that endangers navigation safety.” Ministry of National Defense spokesman Sun Li-fang (孫立方) yesterday told reporters that Taiwan would boost support to the Coast Guard