Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) holds a slight lead over President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) in both a head-to-head scenario and a possible three-way race, according to the latest survey, and Tsai would likely win the January presidential election if economic issues were voters’ top concern, analysts said in a forum yesterday.
A public opinion poll, conducted on Friday and Saturday by the Taiwan Brain Trust think tank, found that 35.9 percent of respondents would vote for Tsai, while 32.2 percent would vote for Ma and 13.7 percent would support People First Party Chairperson James Soong (宋楚瑜) in a three-way race.
Tsai also leads Ma with 40.1 percent versus 37.3 percent in a head-to-head battle, according to the survey.
Photo: Chang Chung-yi, Taipei Times
While Tsai’s campaign has been hurt by a series of allegations about her running mate Su Jia-chyuan’s (蘇嘉全) farmhouse in Pingtung County, it appeared she had more than made up for it during her 11-day campaign trip on the west coast, said Chen Jin-ji (陳錦稷), director of the Taiwan Brain Trust’s poll center, adding that Ma’s re-election campaign has suffered devastating blows because of his peace agreement proposal.
Tsai enjoys a large lead in southern Taiwan in a head-to-head battle, leading Ma by 17.9 percentage points in Yunlin, Chiayi and Greater Tainan, and 27.2 percentage points in Greater Kaohsiung and Pingtung, the survey showed.
She also holds the advantage among voters in the 20-39 age group, with a 15.4 point lead in the 20-29 age bracket, and leads by 7.6 points in the 30-39 bracket.
Despite Tsai trailing among female voters by 3.6 percentage points, the poll result is the best ever performance for any DPP presidential candidate, Taiwan Brain Trust chief executive Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政) said.
Economic voting behavior was one of the most crucial reasons contributing to the DPP’s landslide loss in the 2008 presidential election, as financially challenged voters tend to favor a change in government, said Kenneth Lin (林向愷), an economics professor at National Taiwan University.
If that theory applies in the upcoming election, Lin said, the same things could happen again because most of the respondents were not happy with the economic performance of the Ma administration and said they were pessimistic about Taiwan’s economic prospects.
The same survey found that more than half of the respondents are unhappy with Ma’s -performance on fighting the increasing wealth gap, unemployment and commodity prices, with 57.1 percent saying they were not satisfied with Ma’s economic performance and 56.9 percent saying Ma favored big business.
More than 70 percent of respondents described the nation’s unemployment situation as “serious” or “very serious” and 53.5 percent are concerned about losing jobs or being forced to take unpaid leave within the next six months.
“Countries around the world are suffering from economic downturns and turbulence. However, what concerns me the most is that, unlike other countries, expectations for the future have been lacking among Taiwanese,” Taiwan Brain Trust founder and former presidential adviser Koo Kwang-ming (辜寬敏) said.
That is why a regime change seems inevitable, he said, especially after Soong’s entry into the presidential election.
“From what I’ve seen, Ma has had no hope of being re-elected since Soong made his bid official,” Koo said.
The poll collected 1,071 samples with a 3 percent margin of error.
GOOD DIPLOMACY: The KMT has maintained close contact with representative offices in Taiwan and had extended an invitation to Russia as well, the KMT said The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) would “appropriately handle” the fallout from an invitation it had extended to Russia’s representative to Taipei to attend its international banquet last month, KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) said yesterday. US and EU representatives in Taiwan boycotted the event, and only later agreed to attend after the KMT rescinded its invitation to the Russian representative. The KMT has maintained long-term close contact with all representative offices and embassies in Taiwan, and had extended the invitation as a practice of good diplomacy, Chu said. “Some EU countries have expressed their opinions of Russia, and the KMT respects that,” he
An increase in Taiwanese boats using China-made automatic identification systems (AIS) could confuse coast guards patrolling waters off Taiwan’s southwest coast and become a loophole in the national security system, sources familiar with the matter said yesterday. Taiwan ADIZ, a Facebook page created by enthusiasts who monitor Chinese military activities in airspace and waters off Taiwan’s southwest coast, on Saturday identified what seemed to be a Chinese cargo container ship near Penghu County. The Coast Guard Administration went to the location after receiving the tip and found that it was a Taiwanese yacht, which had a Chinese AIS installed. Similar instances had also
CHANGES: After-school tutoring periods, extracurricular activities during vacations or after-school study periods must not be used to teach new material, the ministry said The Ministry of Education yesterday announced new rules that would ban giving tests to most elementary and junior-high school students during morning study and afternoon rest periods. The amendments to regulations governing public education at elementary schools and junior high schools are to be implemented on Aug. 1. The revised rules stipulate that schools are forbidden to use after-school tutoring periods, extracurricular activities during summer or winter vacation or after-school study periods to teach new course material. In addition, schools would be prohibited from giving tests or exams to students in grades one to eight during morning study and afternoon break periods, the
AMENDMENT: Contact with certain individuals in China, Hong Kong and Macau must be reported, and failure to comply could result in a prison sentence, the proposal stated The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) yesterday voted against a proposed bill by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers that would require elected officials to seek approval before visiting China. DPP Legislator Puma Shen’s (沈伯洋) proposed amendments to the Act Governing Relations Between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area (臺灣地區與大陸地區人民關係條例), stipulate that contact with certain individuals in China, Hong Kong and Macau should be reported, while failure to comply would be punishable by prison sentences of up to three years, alongside a fine of NT$10 million (US$309,041). Fifty-six voted with the TPP in opposition