Taiwan is headed for a cool but dry spring this year after experiencing its coldest winter in 25 years, the Central Weather Bureau said in its climate forecast yesterday.
Cheng Ming-dean (鄭明典), director of the bureau’s weather forecast center, said the joint influence of the La Nina effect and an Arctic oscillation in a negative phase had caused the nation to experience the coldest winter since 1986.
The Arctic oscillation refers to the fluctuations of atmospheric temperatures and pressures in the North Pole and is often cited by climatologists in explaining extreme weather. The surface pressure in the North Pole is low when the oscillation is in the positive phase, allowing the middle latitude jet stream to consistently blow from west to east and keeping the cold air in the polar region. When the oscillation is in the negative phase, however, the higher surface pressure in the Arctic area would force the cold air down to the middle latitude.
This would translate into relatively warmer temperatures in the polar region and colder -temperatures in the middle latitudes.
Cheng said the Arctic oscillation was expected to gradually return to the positive phase and the La Nina effect would continue to weaken as the nation enters the spring season.
“Overall, the weather in the spring would fall within the normal range after a La Nina year,” he said. “However, chances of having temperatures higher than normal are small and the overall rainfall is likely to fall on the lower side of the normal range.”
The bureau gave a long-term weather forecast for the spring, which officially starts this month and lasts until May.
In his presentation, Cheng showed the nation was hit by five cold waves from the end of December to the end of January.
“Before the end of December, the weather was mostly cold and dry,” Cheng said. “However, starting in January we started to have more cold and rainy days and the cold waves just kept coming one after another.”
The rainfall forecast for the spring was no comfort for the Water Resources Agency, as it had said earlier that both the Central Taiwan Science Park and Hsinchu Science Park could soon face water shortages.
While there could be less rain than normal this month, Cheng said the southwestern wind blown from the Indochinese peninsula could help increase the frequency and intensity of convective rain next month.
Meanwhile, the bureau said residents in northern parts of the country should brace for lows of 11oC after a cold air mass arrives today. Temperatures in central and southern Taiwan could drop to lows of 15oC and 17oC respectively.
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