The odds of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates for Taipei City, Sinbei City and Greater Taichung winning the November special municipality elections reached a new high yesterday, one day after DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) announced her candidacy for Sinbei mayor, a university prediction center said.
National Chengchi University’s Center for Prediction Market said the prospects of DPP candidates winning the Taipei and Sinbei races were slightly lower than those of their Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) counterparts, but the DPP candidates had posted their highest numbers over the past two months.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect the probability.
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, bidders felt the probability of Tsai winning the November polls grew from NT$30 to NT$40.25 on Sunday when the party announced her candidacy and to NT$45.33 yesterday — its highest level since March.
The likelihood of her KMT opponent, former vice premier Eric Chu (朱立倫), winning dropped 10 percentage points to NT$49.87 yesterday — the lowest over the past two months.
Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) of the KMT continued to lead the polls in the nation’s capital, with the prices fluctuating between NT$53 and NT$57. However, it declined dramatically to NT$51.76 on Sunday — his lowest over the past two months — and rebounded to NT$52.24 yesterday.
The bidding price of his DPP competitor, Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), remained between NT$42 and NT$45 before Sunday, but rose to NT$46.6 on Sunday — its highest level in the past two months. It dropped slightly to NT$45.56 yesterday.
The center has yet to survey the possibility of Greater Taichung’s DPP candidate Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全), but the probability of the KMT candidate winning the poll had continued to drop since Sunday. The fall exceeded 10 percentage points to NT$67.1 yesterday — its lowest level since February.
DPP candidates continue to lead the polls significantly in the south, but the sharp decline in support for DPP candidate for Greater Kaohsiung, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) was worth noting.
The possibility of Chen winning the poll had remained high at NT$66 to NT$70. It fell to NT$62.32 yesterday — its lowest level since Chen announced her candidacy on May 5. Her KMT challenger, Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順), remained at NT$12 to NT$16.
In Greater Tainan, the margin between DPP candidate William Lai (賴清德) and his KMT opponent Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財) remained significant, with Lai between NT$71 and NT$78 and Kuo at NT$8 to NT$16.
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