As both sides of the Taiwan Strait engage in vibrant economic exchanges, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has said he would consider peace talks with Beijing if re-elected in 2012.
That possibility worries some political observers who said that any peace talks promoted by closer economic ties might end up serving Beijing's political agenda.
Ma first made the remarks in an interview with Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao (聯合早報) published on May 8 and then again during an interview with Taiwan's China Television Co (CTV) last week. He added, however, that political negotiations do not necessarily have to start in 2012, saying it would depend on developments and whether more pressing issues, such as the economy, had been addressed.
Ruan Ming (阮銘), a Chinese political analyst and a consultant at the Taiwan Research Institute, said Ma's policy to proceed gradually was similar to Chinese president Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) “Jiang's Eight Points” (江八點).
To reach China's ultimate goal of unification, Jiang's eight-point proposal includes developing economic exchanges and cooperation, promoting direct transportation links, advancing talks on regular affairs and officially ending cross-strait hostilities.
Beijing reaffirmed “Jiang's Eight Points” in January this year when Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) proposed signing a peace agreement and establishing a military confidence-building mechanism.
Ruan said China has changed its tactics but not its goal. Ma, however, seemed to be more anxious to see Beijing achieve its goal.
“Ma will never win this war with the Chinese Communist Party,” Ruan said. “Beijing has a comprehensive game plan in place, but Ma builds his cross-strait policy on a fictitious ‘1992 consensus' and recognition of 'one China.'”
Had Ma's predecessors — former presidents Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) and Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) — been willing to accept the “one China” policy, direct transportation links would have been launched during their terms in office, Ruan said.
Desperate to divert attention from his administration's lackluster performance in domestic issues, Ruan said, Ma is aggressively pushing cross-strait affairs. Beijing is worried, however, that if Ma goes too fast, Taiwanese may not like it, so it must step on the brakes, he said.
Ruan cited the Ma administration's keen interest in signing an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China as an example, despite Beijing's lukewarm response and opposition from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Ruan said China would make an all-out effort to help Ma win re-election, adding that Beijing was likely to dole out more small favors while keeping a tight rein on things to avoid upsetting the Taiwanese.
If Ma is smart, he would make good use of the DPP's opposition and use it as leverage in negotiating with China, Ruan said.
“But it seems Ma does not understand this,” he said. “He is upset with the DPP because he thinks they are against him. He does not seem to grasp the concept that the opinion of the opposition party should outweigh that of China.”
Ma's reluctance to communicate with the DPP can be attributed to the fact that the party is not a strong opposition, Ruan said.
If Ma genuinely cared about democracy and really wanted to follow the footsteps of his mentor, the late president Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國), he should have helped the DPP become a powerful party, Ruan said, because only with a healthy democracy can the country increase its bargaining chips at the negotiating table.
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