The conservative party of new South Korean President Lee Myung-bak is poised to win Wednesday’s general election despite a barrage of threats from North Korea against his administration, analysts say.
The former business executive won a huge victory over his liberal rival in December’s presidential poll with his “Economy First!” pledge.
Lee now wants his ruling Grand National Party (GNP) to secure a parliamentary majority over the liberal United Democratic Party (UDP) so he can enact sweeping changes designed to revitalize the economy.
North Korea announced on Thursday it was suspending all dialogue with South Korea, the culmination of a week of growing cross-border tensions.
Pyongyang is furious at Lee’s tougher line linking economic aid to the North’s progress in nuclear disarmament, and at his declared readiness to raise the issue of human rights abuses.
Analysts say the North may be testing Lee’s resolve and trying to sway people against the GNP.
“North Korea’s recent threats are causing concern and are certain to sway some voters. But unlike in the past, the impact is not so big this time,” said Park Myung-ho, a Dongguk University political science professor.
Sungkyunkwan University political science professor Kim Il-young agreed that the recent threats would have no significant impact on the election.
Voters in fact don’t seem hugely interested in anything this time. The National Election Commission fears a record low turnout of around 52 percent — and is running campaigns to get out the vote.
“Low turnout is a long-term trend but political parties and politicians are also failing to rouse voters’ interest, especially in this parliamentary election,” Kim Il-young said. “The parties put up candidates only about two weeks before the election, depriving many voters of chances to get acquainted with their background and policy planks.”
Park said public interest in politics has waned gradually since the presidential election, but both analysts forecast a GNP victory.
The UDP says it hopes to win at least 100 parliamentary seats so it can stop any moves by the GNP to change the Constitution. It appeals for a large opposition presence in parliament to keep the government in check.
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