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ANALYSIS: KMT won't push for right to form Cabinet: analysts

"The KMT would rather get itself through the presidential election just the way it is now than form a Cabinet in case that becomes an unpredictable factor influencing the election."

Lee Yeau-tarn, director of the Graduate Institute of Development Studies at National Chengchi University

The composition of the new legislature, with the opposition pan-blue camp seizing a three-quarter majority, is unlikely to result in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government transferring the right to form a Cabinet to the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), political analysts said yesterday.

Premier Chang Chun-hsiung (張俊雄) will lead his Cabinet in a mass resignation on Jan. 28.

The Cabinet by tradition resigns after the election of a new legislature.

The practice is generally considered a formality as the Cabinet will be nothing more than a "caretaker Cabinet" prior to the May 20 inauguration of a new president following the presidential election in March.

A suggestion, however, had emerged that the power to form a Cabinet should be relinquished to the KMT, which won 81 of 113 seats in the new legislature.

Allen Houng (洪裕宏), convener of the Constitutional Reform Alliance, said that the majority party forming a Cabinet is not consistent with the principles of the Constitution.

Despite the ambiguity in defining whether the government system is of a presidential or parliamentary design, it is not formed under semi-presidential rules such as it is in France, in which the executive is split between an elected president and a premier contingent on a majority in the legislature, he said.

After the 1997 round of constitutional revisions, Taiwan adopted a semi-presidential system, and some argued that it mirrored the French framework.

But it is also flagged as a non-genuine semi-presidential system because of a lack of some mechanisms available in the French system.

As the president enjoys the power to appoint the premier directly without legislative authorization, it is more like the presidential system, Houng said.

If the majority in the legislature forms the Cabinet without simultaneously giving the president the power to dissolve the legislature, the president would become a titular head, incompatible with a quasi-presidential system and public expectations, he added.

The president is empowered by the Constitution to dissolve the legislature, but he can do so only after the legislature has passed a no-confidence vote against the premier.

"That is just power on paper because in reality the legislature, in fear of dissolution and the cost of re-election, is unlikely to initiate any vote of no-confidence in the premier," Houng said.

Fu Hung-der (傅恆德), a professor of political science at Tunghai University, suggested the DPP give the KMT the right to form the Cabinet because this is the norm in a democracy.

The Constitution per se is not based on a presidential system, where a majority-formed Cabinet should not be an issue of dispute, Fu said.

"Rather, the Constitution should be read as either a semi-presidential model or a parliamentary one, in a manner of speaking, or otherwise the president would not have to appoint a premier who is authorized to form a Cabinet," Fu said.

In view of the huge KMT legislative majority, it is just "a matter of time" until the DPP has to surrender the right to form a Cabinet, Fu said, adding: "If not now, the power must still be given to the KMT after May 20 even if DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) is elected."

Looking at the issue in practice and not in line with constitutional theory, analysts said a majority-formed Cabinet would not result when the new legislature convenes on Feb.1.

Lee Yeau-tarn (李酉潭), director of the Graduate Institute of Development Studies at National Chengchi University, said that the probability that the KMT would accept an offer to form a Cabinet now was low.

"The KMT would rather get itself through the presidential election just the way it is now than form a Cabinet in case that becomes an unpredictable factor influencing the election," Lee said.

KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) yesterday rejected the possibility of his party forming a Cabinet ahead of the presidential election, following his previous remarks that it would not recall the president, topple the Cabinet, or amend the Constitution.

Lee said it would be "irresponsible" for the DPP to relinquish the power to form a Cabinet prior to the March election because that would create political instability.

"If Hsieh were elected, he has no choice but to form a coalition Cabinet with the KMT. But if the DPP relinquished that power now, Hsieh has no chance of winning the election," Houng said.

After the KMT's victory, there could be a "pendulum effect" as the DPP hopes, with Hsieh urging the public to give the DPP another chance in the presidential election, as it is important to voters to have checks and balances of power, Houng said.

"How could Hsieh convince the public of his checks and balances argument if the DPP gave up the power to form a Cabinet. Once the power is given to the KMT, it would become a constitutional convention that is needed to be abided by after May 20. Voters would think they don't need to bother voting for Hsieh if the KMT would dominate the Cabinet anyway," Houng said.
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