Fri, Jun 22, 2007 - Page 2 News List

Forecasters frown upon academic's typhoon prediction


Central Weather Bureau meteorologists yesterday hosed down speculation that Taiwan will experience a larger than average number of typhoons this year under the influence of La Nina.

The forecasters said they did not agree with speculation by an academic based on an analysis conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency that the number of typhoons likely to directly hit Taiwan this summer would be greater than the average of three or four because of the influence of La Nina.

typhoon formation

Bureau tallies show an average 27 typhoons have formed in the western Pacific and the South China Sea annually over the past several decades. Of that total, an average of three to four directly affected Taiwan.

The forecasters said La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as opposed to the better known El Nino, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the same region.

normal levels

They said ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are currently at normal levels, although they could turn colder than usual in the coming months.

Noting that July and August are the peak months for typhoons in the Taiwan area, the forecasters said they would release a typhoon forecast at the end of this month.

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