Could the influx of journalists and tourists in Beijing next summer generate dissent on such a scale as to lead Beijing authorities to react with a Tiananmen-style crackdown and use Taiwan as a scapegoat to divert attention?
Joseph Wu (
In an interview with the Taipei Times last Wednesday, Wu said he was concerned that "history could repeat itself" and that Taiwan could suffer as a result.
"When there's a major international event in China, it tends to draw international focus. And when there's international focus and attention, some disadvantaged Chinese people will take advantage of this" to express their discontent to the world, he said.
Wu recalled that the actions that sparked the June 1989 Tiananmen uprising and subsequent massacre was the visit to Beijing of Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. With the world's media in Beijing to cover the visit, the student-led dissidents "participated in the demonstrations, knowing there would be international coverage. And it became the Tiananmen incident," Wu said.
In Beijing, the world's media will be looking for stories and the human rights issue is likely to loom large.
"Students and dissatisfied citizens will take that advantage to tell their story to the media. So even if Taiwan tries to avoid becoming a problem [in the Olympics], it could get caught up in the unrest," Wu said.
If there were a crackdown, "I foresee that many countries would boycott the Beijing Olympics," Wu said.
"The easiest way for an authoritarian regime to divert attention from its domestic problems is to use other countries as scapegoats. Taiwan is conveniently located next to China and both have a long history of political jousting. Facing problems at home, Beijing could very easily shift the focus onto Taiwan. Sadly, this is something Taiwan could very well have to deal with," he said.
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