Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) decision to transfer power over the military to Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) came as a surprise to the governments of both Taiwan and the US, Taiwan's top national security official said yesterday.
He added that officials are monitoring what roles heavyweights in Jiang's faction will serve in the future.
"According to information collected by the top government intelligence system and passed from the US government, there have been intense power struggles between Jiang and Hu recently and heavyweights on both sides refused to make any concessions," said Chiou I-jen (
He stressed that China's main policy on Taiwan will not change immediately after Hu's succession to Jiang's position. The important effect, he said, is that the international community will likely be able to more clearly judge Beijing's movements following Hu's consolidation of power.
Jiang announced his retirement from the post of chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Sunday during the Fourth Central Members Assembly of the CCP's 16th Party Congress.
Hu's succession to head of the military commission comes after a lengthy leadership transition that began in November 2002, when he replaced Jiang as party head. He then took over from Jiang as president in March last year.
Meanwhile, Bonnie Glaser, a consultant on Asian affairs and senior associate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, echoed Chiou's point of view, saying that Jiang's final retirement came as a surprise to most analysts.
Even more unexpected, she said, was that Zeng Qinghong (曾慶紅), who has been regarded as Jiang's right hand, was not appointed vice chairman of the Central Military Commission.
As to whether, over time, there will be any change in China's approach or policy toward Taiwan, Glaser commented that it remains to be seen.
"First, [Hu] is part of a collective leadership -- Hu Jintao is not a Mao or a Deng and must consult with his colleagues," Glaser said. "Second, public opinion is fiercely nationalistic on the Taiwan question and no leader can be seen as soft toward Taiwan."
Third, she said, it is difficult for China's leaders to renounce the policies that they have inherited toward Taiwan -- "one country, two systems", the "one China" principle and Jiang's "eight points."
Glaser stressed that so far there is also no evidence to indicate Hu supports a different policy or approach toward Taiwan.
"Hu has been quite cautious and allowed Jiang to retain control over policy toward Taiwan," Glaser said.
Glaser claimed that it will take time to see whether Hu would favor a new strategy.
"As long as Jiang is alive, I think Hu will continue to be cautious and patient."
Glaser indicated that leaders on both sides of the Taiwan Strait may have to seize this crucial period to further express goodwill, probe for flexibility and seek channels of dialogue.
"If he [Hu] makes a wrong move, he could be vulnerable," she said.
"Taiwan should take this opportunity to signal [China] that it is ready to work toward a brighter future for the people on both sides of the Strait," Glaser said.
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