Economic instability in China could lend strength to calls for the nation's democratization, Mainland Affairs Council Chairman Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) said yesterday. He also cautioned, saying Taiwan could become the scapegoat of nationalism during what he thought was an inevitable process of democratization in China.
"Only by learning from Taiwan will China be able to respond to calls for democratization. Taiwan's democracy is where China's hope lies," Wu said yesterday while delivering a speech during the closing ceremony of a conference held on the prospects of democratization in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Wu did not shy away from historical detail in promoting Taiwan's democratization as a model for China yesterday, saying that Chinese leaders should learn specifically from former ROC president Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國).
"Taiwan was under the authoritarian rule of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) at the time, but Chiang was willing to give democracy a try," Wu said.
Wu said that it is difficult to grasp when strong pressure to democratize will be exerted by the Chinese people, but predicted that it would occur during economic instability after a sustained period of growth. He pointed to a downturn in the global economic cycle as a possible catalyst for increased pressure for democratization.
"This kind of pressure [for democracy] can be immediate, and if China is not prepared, much chaos could ensue. We know from history that in 1989 and 1990, the Soviet Union collapsed very quickly," Wu said.
However, Wu warned that Taiwan needed to be cautious in terms of policy formulation during any move toward democratization in China.
"Currently, Japan serves as Chinese authorities' emotional outlet in dealing with democratization, and there are of course historical reasons for this. But the focus could shift to Taiwan," Wu said, calling any period of democratization in China "dangerous" for Taiwan.
Johnny Lau (劉銳紹), a cross-strait political commentator from Hong Kong, said regarding Chinese democratization, there was a need for not only pressure but also guidance.
"We need to work for the establishment of democracy and a value system we agree with ? there is a lot of pressure for democratization from the international community, but there is no guidance from them," Lau said.
Ping Lu (平路), director of Taiwan's Kwang Hwa Information and Culture Center in Hong Kong, also noted that Taiwan could serve as a model for Hong Kong and China, but added there were barriers to such an exchange.
"Taiwan and Hong Kong have long underestimated each other. Taiwan took Hong Kong as an example of the failure of the `one country, two systems' model, while Hong Kong took Taiwan as an example of the chaos that democracy brings," Ping Lu said.
"To Hong Kong, it may seem that Taiwan has many problems. Taiwanese legislators watch call-in talk shows on television at night and then respond to them in the legislature the next day. This is unhealthy, but this is democracy, and without democracy we can't discuss these problems," Michael Hsiao (蕭新煌), national policy advisor to the president said.
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