Political analysts say President Chen Shui-bian (
But, the analysts point out, the key to winning the election next March lies in how well the economy performs in the final few months leading up to the vote.
"Normally, it is the opposition party's strategy to criticize the government, to offer a vision for the future, an idealistic appeal and to urge reform," said Hu Wen-hui (胡文輝), a senior political columnist.
PHOTO: GEORGE TSRONG, TAIPEI TIMES
"All governing parties in the world, on the other hand, appeal to preserve the status quo. They stress stability above everything and remind the public to be grateful for the stability and identify with the government's long-term efforts," Hu said.
But, said Hu, Taiwan's political situation is not normal.
"Taiwan, however, is probably the only democratic country in the world where the reverse holds true. Right now the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is inciting people to support reform. Meanwhile the opposing pan-blue camp of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the People First Party (PFP) are proposing to maintain the status quo -- or even a step further, to return to the past with a strong nostalgia for the old dictatorship."
Hu pointed out that the presidential election campaign had already started last April when KMT Chairman Lien Chan (
In the past six months, Chen Shui-bian has been playing catch up. He's proposed referendums, legislative reform, a new Constitution, singing the tune of reform and making the DPP look like the opposition party, Hu said.
The pan-blue camp, on the other hand, has been acting like a traditional governing party, unable to propose a new agenda.
Instead, they have been urging the public to reminisce, to indulge in remembering two dictators and they have not been offering any concrete vision for the future.
"All campaign appeals have been linked to the past and had nothing to do with the future," Hu said.
Agenda-setting is the major battlefield of an election campaign, said Chen Sun-shan (陳淞山), a senior political analyst and commissioner of the Civil Service Protection and Training Commission.
Before the transfer of power in 2000, the DPP -- without a strong party mechanism and lacking support from both political and military circles -- was good at running the campaign with various word games, flyers and brochures. In addition, Chen Shui-bian's campaign team was considered the very best in dishing out an exciting and refreshing agenda.
"A-bian is still leading the election agenda. In domestic affairs, he appeals for reform, in contrast to the KMT-PFP's status quo," said Chen Sun-shan, referring to the president by his nickname.
"And in cross-strait relations, A-bian is using national security as a reason to appeal for the status quo, in contrast to the KMT-PFP's calls for further opening up to China," he said.
"A-bian's way obviously represents the mainstream of Taiwanese people and it also satisfies the international interests, which are headed by the US. He can take up a good spot in the open debate and gain a strategic advantage," he said.
Chen Sun-shan, who once served as the chief of Chen Shui-bian's staff when A-bian was still a legislator, said that the KMT-PFP alliance seems to think they have an advantage with the Taiwanese electorate structure -- and with the DPP's poor record during its first three years in power. As a result, the pan-blue camp thought they could do nothing and still win the election, Chen Sun-shan said.
"These two parties did nothing to prove that they had reformed themselves in the past three years. And right now they cannot deliver any concrete policies to draw a future for Taiwan," Chen Sun-shan said.
"Even their fundamental ideologies are not close to mainstream public opinion, and this is where A-bian's team can work to lead the public and media on issues," Chen Sun-shan said.
Ku Chung-hwa (
"They also presented themselves in a conservative light and the support shown in the polls has fallen greatly," Ku said.
"Lien Chan even used the word `boring' to respond to Chen Shui-bian's constitutional-reform appeal. It only shows how arrogant the KMT is, and how inaccessible Lien is. This also shows that the pan-blue camp ignores the impact these appeals have on the grassroots public," Ku said.
Ku said that whether Chen Shui-bian can realize his reform goals and promises was another matter.
What counts is that Chen Shui-bian's election agenda is very clear, he is good at presenting his issues in the media, and he is aggressively interacting with the public. As a result, the polls have slowly come to show that he is enjoying the same level of support as the Lien-Soong ticket, Ku said.
Recent figures have also shown that the economy is recovering. So the crucial point for the presidential election next March lies with the governing party's performance in the final few months," Ku said.
"If the economy shows growth early next year, it would change everything and turns the campaign to A-bian's advantage," Ku said. "This would be A-bian's best move, and Lien-Soong's least favorite one."
Taiwan is to receive the first batch of Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 jets from the US late this month, a defense official said yesterday, after a year-long delay due to a logjam in US arms deliveries. Completing the NT$247.2 billion (US$7.69 billion) arms deal for 66 jets would make Taiwan the third nation in the world to receive factory-fresh advanced fighter jets of the same make and model, following Bahrain and Slovakia, the official said on condition of anonymity. F-16 Block 70/72 are newly manufactured F-16 jets built by Lockheed Martin to the standards of the F-16V upgrade package. Republic of China
Taiwan-Japan Travel Passes are available for use on public transit networks in the two countries, Taoyuan Metro Corp said yesterday, adding that discounts of up to 7 percent are available. Taoyuan Metro, the Taipei MRT and Japan’s Keisei Electric Railway teamed up to develop the pass. Taoyuan Metro operates the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport MRT Line, while Keisei Electric Railway offers express services between Tokyo’s Narita Airport, and the Keisei Ueno and Nippori stations in the Japanese capital, as well as between Narita and Haneda airports. The basic package comprises one one-way ticket on the Taoyuan MRT Line and one Skyliner ticket on
Starlux Airlines, Taiwan’s newest international carrier, has announced it would apply to join the Oneworld global airline alliance before the end of next year. In an investor conference on Monday, Starlux Airlines chief executive officer Glenn Chai (翟健華) said joining the alliance would help it access Taiwan. Chai said that if accepted, Starlux would work with other airlines in the alliance on flight schedules, passenger transits and frequent flyer programs. The Oneworld alliance has 13 members, including American Airlines, British Airways, Cathay Pacific and Qantas, and serves more than 900 destinations in 170 territories. Joining Oneworld would also help boost
A new tropical storm formed late yesterday near Guam and is to approach closest to Taiwan on Thursday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Tropical Storm Pulasan became the 14th named storm of the year at 9:25pm yesterday, the agency said. As of 8am today, it was near Guam traveling northwest at 21kph, it said. The storm’s structure is relatively loose and conditions for strengthening are limited, WeatherRisk analyst Wu Sheng-yu (吳聖宇) said on Facebook. Its path is likely to be similar to Typhoon Bebinca, which passed north of Taiwan over Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and made landfall in Shanghai this morning, he said. However, it