The unprecedented attention from the media and big-gun politicians in the Hualien County Commissioner by-election has given the highest profile in five decades to this local election.
Many believe it's because the election results could foreshadow the presidential election slated for next spring.
However, the lukewarm reaction from local residents towards the campaign fervor and the unique distribution of various ethnic groups in Hualien means that the by-election itself is by no means a precursor to the upcoming presidential poll.
Rather, it it is acting more like a simulation of the ultimate presidential campaign for both the pan-blue and pan-green camps.
For KMT Chairman Lien Chan (
For the first time, the KMT and PFP integrated in their campaign machines and party resources. Both Lien and Soong also frequently went to the east coast to stump for the pan-blue candidate Hsieh Shen-shan (
Furthermore, if Hsieh wins the election, the joint KMT-PFP mechanism will get a strong validation of its effectiveness and therefore strengthen the cooperation of the Lien-Soong ticketing.
A similar thing could be said of the DPP. You Ying-lung (
DPP personnel campaigning for You include top guns from the Department of Information and Culture, the Department of Organization as well as the Department of Ethnic Affairs.
The election is also an opportunity to test how these units work together in an important battle, which will provide valuable information about any adjustments that might need to be made in next year's presidential election campaign.
In addition to testing the capabilities of the party mechanism in the election, the party's rank-and-file public officials -- including legislators, city and county councilors -- are also being watched to see whether they can all work together in an important campaign.
The experience of the police's recent measures used to crack down on vote-buying practices in Hualien will also be conducive to preventing a similar scenario from happening in the run up to the presidential poll.
If You wins the election, it would prove again that the DPP can make a break-through and achieve the first rotation of political power in Hualien in more than five decades.
However, the media coverage and high-profile visits by political leaders has not actually garnered a passionate response from the local residents.
Rather, the electoral atmosphere was only tepid as many saw it as just a by-election and treated it as any normal local event.
Moreover, Hualien's four major ethnic groups -- Hokkien, Hakka, Aboriginals and mainland Chinese -- do not reflect the true population distribution elsewhere Taiwan.
Therefore, the election results do not necessarily predict the outcome of a presidential poll.
While both the ruling and opposition camps have engaged in a competition to raise the stakes in this political poker game, Chiu Hei-yuan (
"Compared with Hsieh's chances in Hualien, where the pan blue supporters usually prevail, You's chances of winning are relatively low. It's unwise to add such high-caliber chips to election -- which is like a gambling game," Chiu said.
"This is just a local election. The DPP has constantly denied that it is treating the election as a preliminary try-out for the next presidential election," he said.
"But judging from the steady stream of top political leaders such as President Chen and Premier Yu Shyi-kun stumping for You, the DPP is contradicting its own stance and is adding too many chips to this bet," Chiu said.
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