DPP believes it's gaining in key by-election

Delighted to see that the DPP's candidate for the Hualien County commissioner by-election You Ying-lung (游盈隆) has gained a slight increase of support after last weekend's campaign rallies, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) yesterday said You has a strong chance of winning.

"Last weekend's passionate campaign for You has significantly boosted the DPP's morale in Hualien and has strengthened support for You. It's an election battle worth fighting for. The president has encouraged everyone to make a final effort for You," DPP's Deputy Secretary-General Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) said yesterday.

The DPP yesterday discussed its polling analysis on the three candidates in the by-election. The polls indicate that both You and KMT candidate Hsieh Shen-shan (謝深山) have experienced slight increases of support following last weekend's stumping by a line-up of Taipei's big names including Chen, KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), PFP Chairman James Soong (連戰) and other party lawmakers and officials.

Chen Chun-lin (陳俊麟), the DPP's polling expert and special assistant to DPP Chairman Chen Shui-bian, yesterday said that although You and Hsieh have gained a small increase in public support, the independent candidate Wu Kuo-tung (吳國棟) also remained strong as local election information indicated Wu enjoys a high level of undeclared support.

"The three candidates still make for a close match, because each of them has about 30 percent of voter support. Ten percent of the public have expressed indecision," Chen said.

"The DPP has consolidated 30 percent of its traditional base of support in Hualien, and during the past few days we also have seen a significant one to two percent growth in support for You, especially from the younger voters," Chen said, citing a series of results from the poll.

The party declined to release figures of the poll because the election law does not allow the results of surveys to be released in the 10 days prior to an election.

Commenting on the factors that would affect the candidates, Chen said that a serious clash amid the overlapping pan-blue bases of support for Hsieh and Wu would undermine their "campaign pillars" -- the vote-captains. Chen doubted Soong would be able to sway PFP vote-captains' support from Wu to Hsieh.

"From early July till now, we have seen 20 percent of the PFP supporters show up in support of Wu," Chen said.

"Though Soong has openly stumped for Hsieh, it is still an unpredictable race. Soong has not made a final drastic call to demand that his PFP followers support Hsieh and only Hsieh," Chen said.