When the University of Southern California stars Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart visit New York this weekend, they may want to speak with a real estate agent.
Both will be in Manhattan, along with Vince Young of Texas, for the Heisman Trophy presentation Saturday night. But Jets fans are probably already thinking about April's NFL draft, which is being referred to as the Bush-Leinart sweepstakes.
With four weeks to go in the NFL season, the Houston Texans (1-11) appear headed for the No. 1 draft pick. The Jets hold the edge over San Francisco and Green Bay for the No. 2 pick. All three are 2-10, but strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker to determine draft order.
New Orleans (3-9) and Tennessee (3-9) are also capable of losing enough games down the stretch to shuffle the draft order.
The game that may have the biggest impact on the Bush-Leinart competition takes place Jan. 1, when Houston visits San Francisco on the final day of the regular season.
The top draft teams would face difficult decisions, including a choice between Bush and Leinart and possible trade offers.
Should Houston stick with the struggling David Carr at quarterback and choose Bush, an electrifying multipurpose running back who is being compared with Gale Sayers and Marshall Faulk? Or should the Texans draft Leinart, who is considered the best quarterback, the game's most important position?
Quarterbacks have been selected No. 1 in seven of the past eight years, and if Leinart becomes a star, any general manager who passes on him could face a lifetime of second-guessing.
The Jets have different issues. They have no idea how well quarterback Chad Pennington will recover from the shoulder operation that ended his season. Pennington's $64 million contract runs through 2011, and he is still only 29. But if Leinart is available, can the Jets afford to pass on him, given Pennington's history of injuries?
eye on the quarterback
"It will be really interesting to see where these guys end up, because Reggie is so rare and so different, but at the end of the day, it's still a quarterback's league," said Pat Kirwan, who held several positions in the Jets' front office during the 1990s and is now an analyst for NFL.com. "At this time last year, nobody thought Alex Smith would be the No. 1 pick in the last draft."
San Francisco selected Smith, who was a star quarterback at Utah.
"But there is so much pressure to draft a quarterback first if you think he even has a chance to be good," Kirwan said. "Reggie may be the best player, but Matt's the quarterback, which makes it a tougher call."
The Texans have lost their last two games in heartbreaking fashion, one in overtime and one on a field goal with six seconds remaining. But some Texans fans, hoping to see Bush in a Houston uniform next season, consider those defeats to be blessings.
Gil Brandt, a former player personnel director for the Dallas Cowboys, says that watching the bottom of the standings reminds him of the 1988 season. Heading into the final week, Green Bay had the worst record. But the Packers beat the Cardinals on the last day, and the Cowboys lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, giving Dallas the No. 1 pick.
Four months later, the Cowboys drafted quarterback Troy Aikman, who led them to victories in three Super Bowls. The Packers made a huge blunder with the No. 2 pick, selecting offensive lineman Tony Mandarich, who lasted just three seasons in Green Bay. The next three picks were Barry Sanders, a Hall of Fame running back; Derrick Thomas, one of the best linebackers of the 1990s; and Deion Sanders, perhaps the best cover cornerback to play the game.
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