Sun, Dec 11, 2005 page22

• Students, scouts consider draft

  GOING PROFESSIONAL NFL scouts expect that Reggie Bush, a junior, will declare himself eligible for the draft and that he and Matt Leinart will be the first two players selected

  • NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE
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  When the University of Southern California stars Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart visit New York this weekend, they may want to speak with a real estate agent.

  Both will be in Manhattan, along with Vince Young of Texas, for the Heisman Trophy presentation Saturday night. But Jets fans are probably already thinking about April's NFL draft, which is being referred to as the Bush-Leinart sweepstakes.

  With four weeks to go in the NFL season, the Houston Texans (1-11) appear headed for the No. 1 draft pick. The Jets hold the edge over San Francisco and Green Bay for the No. 2 pick. All three are 2-10, but strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker to determine draft order.

  

  Southern California's Reggie Bush, right, holds off UCLA defender Jarrad Page in the first quarter at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Dec. 3.

  PHOTO: AP

  New Orleans (3-9) and Tennessee (3-9) are also capable of losing enough games down the stretch to shuffle the draft order.

  The game that may have the biggest impact on the Bush-Leinart competition takes place Jan. 1, when Houston visits San Francisco on the final day of the regular season.

  The top draft teams would face difficult decisions, including a choice between Bush and Leinart and possible trade offers.

  Should Houston stick with the struggling David Carr at quarterback and choose Bush, an electrifying multipurpose running back who is being compared with Gale Sayers and Marshall Faulk? Or should the Texans draft Leinart, who is considered the best quarterback, the game's most important position?

  Quarterbacks have been selected No. 1 in seven of the past eight years, and if Leinart becomes a star, any general manager who passes on him could face a lifetime of second-guessing.

  The Jets have different issues. They have no idea how well quarterback Chad Pennington will recover from the shoulder operation that ended his season. Pennington's $64 million contract runs through 2011, and he is still only 29. But if Leinart is available, can the Jets afford to pass on him, given Pennington's history of injuries?

  eye on the quarterback

  "It will be really interesting to see where these guys end up, because Reggie is so rare and so different, but at the end of the day, it's still a quarterback's league," said Pat Kirwan, who held several positions in the Jets' front office during the 1990s and is now an analyst for NFL.com. "At this time last year, nobody thought Alex Smith would be the No. 1 pick in the last draft."

  San Francisco selected Smith, who was a star quarterback at Utah.

  "But there is so much pressure to draft a quarterback first if you think he even has a chance to be good," Kirwan said. "Reggie may be the best player, but Matt's the quarterback, which makes it a tougher call."

  The Texans have lost their last two games in heartbreaking fashion, one in overtime and one on a field goal with six seconds remaining. But some Texans fans, hoping to see Bush in a Houston uniform next season, consider those defeats to be blessings.

  Gil Brandt, a former player personnel director for the Dallas Cowboys, says that watching the bottom of the standings reminds him of the 1988 season. Heading into the final week, Green Bay had the worst record. But the Packers beat the Cardinals on the last day, and the Cowboys lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, giving Dallas the No. 1 pick.

  Four months later, the Cowboys drafted quarterback Troy Aikman, who led them to victories in three Super Bowls. The Packers made a huge blunder with the No. 2 pick, selecting offensive lineman Tony Mandarich, who lasted just three seasons in Green Bay. The next three picks were Barry Sanders, a Hall of Fame running back; Derrick Thomas, one of the best linebackers of the 1990s; and Deion Sanders, perhaps the best cover cornerback to play the game.

  Does Brandt wonder how NFL history might have changed if the Cowboys had won their last game in 1988 and not landed the No. 1 pick?

  "I'm sure a lot of people in Dallas do," said Brandt, who is also an analyst for NFL.com. "But I've never known any coach or player who let that kind of stuff enter his mind once the game starts. Even if you get the No. 1 pick, there are no guarantees. But this year, it would be a fun decision to make. Both of those guys are tremendous, as is Vince Young."

  The consensus among scouts is that Young would benefit from staying in college and that Bush has little to gain by staying at USC. Quarterbacks generally take longer to develop in the NFL than running backs do, and the contract bonuses for rookies increase every year.

  waiting game

  If Young stays at Texas for another season -- the way Leinart remained at USC for this year -- he could increase his chance of becoming the No. 1 pick and possibly receive a larger contract.

  "I talked to Matt and his dad last year at this time, and I advised his father to talk to some NFL general managers, which he did," Kirwan said. "There's a lot of talk that Matt would have gone No. 1 last year, but I don't believe that. I think he would have gone more like middle of the first round.

  "He had an elbow that needed surgery, and all quarterbacks benefit from experience. Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning -- all of them benefited from staying in school, and they still struggled as rookies. I think Vince Young can be a very successful NFL quarterback, but I don't think there's any doubt he'd benefit from another year at Texas."

  Bush, he said, is a different story.

  "I don't think he's going to stay, and I don't think Pete Carroll is going to advise him to stay," Kirwan said, referring to the U.S.C. coach. "Anybody who doesn't think he's ready hasn't seen him play."

  Winning the Heisman Trophy would fulfill another dream for Bush. He, Leinart -- last season's winner -- and Young have waited a long time for Saturday night. But fans of the Texans, the Jets and other teams in the draft-pick sweepstakes can hardly wait for April.
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