We always know when the regular NFL season begins to wind down because we start to see games being played on Saturday once again.
The first matchup pits two teams with rookie quarterbacks. The New York Giants (5-8), signed Eli Manning this year with a record contract, but the Giants have lost six straight games.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (12-1) have won 11 straight games with their rookie quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger -- a relative unknown before the start of the season.
The Steelers have wrapped up their division title, and Manning knows their defense has yielded only five touchdowns in six games. Manning's quarterback rating in last week's blowout by the Ravens was zero, and for the season it's only 33.6. As he said, "I have to find a way to get out of this."
Washington (4-9) at San Francisco (2-11)
The 49ers have lost eight games in a row, and their coach, Dennis Erickson, may be headed for a comfortable college job. Their talent is scarce, quarterback Tim Rattay has been hurt and their only victories have come in overtime against the Cardinals.
The Redskins' defense looks good, but their offense sometimes keeps other teams in the game.
After his team barely lost to the powerhouse Eagles last week, the Redskins' offensive tackle, Chris Samuels, said, "They won the game, but they respect us." Which means: "They won and we lost."
Carolina (6-7) at Atlanta (10-3)
The Falcons have clinched their division title and seem headed for a first-round playoff bye. They have rushed for 200 or more yards four times this season, but T.J. Duckett, who ran for four touchdowns last week against the Raiders, is gone for the season after knee surgery.
The Panthers have won five games in a row, all against teams with losing records. Still, they are in the wild-card race. As linebacker Mark Fields said, "They had us for the buzzards. We were road kill. All of a sudden, we are coming back."
SUNDAY's games
This is one of those dream matchups between a Indianapolis Colts (10-3) offense that never stops and a Baltimore Ravens (8-5) defense that never stops.
It may also be part of history because Peyton Manning, the Colts' quarterback, needs three touchdown passes to break Dan Marino's NFL season record of 48.
"I'm really enjoying the ride," Manning said. "Touchdowns don't come easy."
They seem to have come easily enough so far, but the Colts, with six straight victories and with a playoff berth clinched, could face a serious test. They are finishing the regular season against the Ravens, the Chargers and the Broncos, all prospective playoff opponents.
For Baltimore, the task is clear: Stop Manning with physical defense and control the ball with a solid running offense. Jamal Lewis, the Ravens' best runner, is recovering from a sprained right ankle, but he will play as much as needed. Kyle Boller threw four touchdown passes last week against the Giants, not the greatest test, but a good taste of success nevertheless.
To make the playoffs, the Ravens must sneak in as a wild card. As coach Brian Billick said: "There are no scenarios. We've got to win to get in. That means each game is a playoff."
Seattle (7-6) at NY Jets (9-4)
The Seahawks are puzzling. Despite offensive talent to spare, they have trouble playing consistently two weeks in a row.
Still, they lead what may be the NFL's weakest division. The Jets played a physical game in last week's loss to the Steelers, but their 11 penalties in the first 25 minutes showed a lack of concentration.
Only two of the Jets' nine victories have come against winning teams, and running back LaMont Jordan said gloomily, "Against good teams, we don't do anything."
Jacksonville (7-6) at
Green Bay (8-5)
The Packers lead their division by a game over the Vikings. The Jaguars are a long shot for the playoffs and need plenty of help. Jacksonville can play stifling defense and showed it against the Bears, stopping their passing game with five sacks and holding their running game to 31 yards.
In beating the Lions, Brett Favre of the Packers played a bad first half and a great second half. After that game, Favre said, "We should feel good about this win, but we're not good enough to feel that good."
Denver (8-5) at Kansas City (5-8)
The Broncos have won four of their last five games, and their playoff hopes are alive. Still, their home crowds are booing even when they win, and coach Mike Shanahan may need to get his team deep into the playoffs to keep his job.
Trent Green, who leads the league with six 300-yard passing games, quarterbacks a big-time Chiefs offense. But their defense can be bad, and as running back Larry Johnson said, "We're going to play the season out and have some momentum going into next season."
Minnesota (7-6) at Detroit (5-8)
The Vikings have lost five of their last seven games, they are struggling to stay in the playoff picture and coach Mike Tice's job is not secure.
Shades of last season, when the Vikings started 6-0 and finished 3-7. The Lions have uncovered a superb runner in Kevin Jones, who has 551 yards in the past four games. That includes 196 and 156 yards in the last two weeks, often against eight men in the box. Defenses are ganging up on him because the Lions' passing game often looks amateurish.
Dallas (5-8) at Philadelphia (12-1)
The Eagles are soaring with a five-game winning streak, a division title and a first-round playoff bye.
The Cowboys are inconsistent, and coach Bill Parcells said, "It doesn't look like we're going very far."
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