In his speech at the May 20 presidential inauguration, President-elect Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) is very likely to focus his China policy on the principle that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait enjoy the same right to interpret the meaning of the "one China" principle in their own way, analysts said yesterday.
Pan Hsi-tang (潘錫堂), a researcher in political science at Tamkang University, said the manifesto may not be appreciated by China, but the Beijing leadership would have no choice but to accept it.
"The key is that the US does not have high demands for Chen over the matter. As long as his inaugural speech carries some sort of friendly message to China, the US will be satisfied," Pan said.
"Chen is still considering whether to re-emphasize at his inaugural speech his insistence on having `one China' as an issue to discuss in possible future talks and not as a principle," he said, referring to demands from Beijing that the tenet be followed to the letter.
"But what Chen will surely bring up in his speech is the equal right for Taiwan and China to interpret `one China' in its own way. It will be the backbone of Chen's China policy," Pan said.
"China may not like the idea but would have no choice but to accept it. The reason is that Chen has apparently gauged Beijing's bottom line on the matter after having tested many times their tolerance of his remarks on the issue," said Pan.
Speaking at a seminar on the situation in the Taiwan Strait, Pan said because of Chen's repeated exploration of China's so-called "bottom line" on the Taiwan issue, leaders in Beijing now harbor fewer expectations as to the inauguration speech.
"Beijing has realized that it is not time yet for the two sides of the Strait to come to a `showdown.' China may opt to launch propaganda warfare and military intimidation against Taiwan sometime after Taiwan's May 20 presidential inauguration. But there will by no means be any military confrontation between the two sides," he said.
Speaking on the same occasion, Hsieh Sheng-yi (
"If Chen still defines cross-strait matters within the framework of `Taiwan,' he will fall into a trap set by China, which is their stance that the `Taiwan issue' is a domestic problem for China," Hsieh said.
"Don't underestimate China. The Chinese are not idiots. They know what kinds of tricks Taiwan will play against them. They know the difference between friendly and belligerent messages," said Hsieh.
"We must understand that the two sides of the Strait think in quite different ways. For the Taiwanese, contradiction is contradiction. But for the Chinese, contradiction is something to be worked upon. In their mindset, the threat of war is a means to gain an advantage in negotiations," said Hsieh.
"China will seek to get the most benefit from cross-strait disputes. One of the best ways to achieve that goal is the threat of war. If Chen cannot bring the `Taiwan issue' to the level of a `China issue,' Taiwan will always be subject to China's will," said Hsieh.
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