Based on Chen Shui-bian's (
Such a change in Taiwan's policy, however, may not come as quickly as is being anticipated, one government source said yesterday.
That caution is most apparent in the selection of three new cabinet members -- Tsai Ying-wen (
Tsai, known widely for her tough negotiating skills and contribution to Taiwan's effort to enter the WTO, is also widely tipped as having been a key architect of the island's controversial "special state-to-state" theory.
"Tsai is a double-edged sword," said Hsu Szu-chien (徐斯儉), a cross-strait analyst and assistant research fellow at National Chengchi University. "She is very interested in promoting trade, but has to be politically cautious at the same time."
The appointment of Yeh, a DPP lawmaker well-known for her strong pro-independence stance, is a sign that Chen is "not going to just give up something," Hsu said, and "use the three links as a political tool."
Chen Pao-chih, who was directly involved in the drafting of Lee Teng-hui's (
The policy limits investment by Taiwan companies in China out of fear that too much outflow of capital resources to the mainland will make Taiwan too dependent on China, putting national security at risk.
As an economics professor at National Taiwan University, Chen is known for not sticking strictly to economics in his analyses, but also bringing politics into consideration.
"On the surface they can be categorized as being against and not incredibly open to the three links," said Philip Yang (楊永明) a political science professor at National Taiwan University. "But we should understand that as both sides are joining the WTO, talks about direct links will be inevitable."
What it does show, Yang said, is that President-elect Chen is going to cautiously move from the current policy to a more liberal one.
By putting people who will uphold the policy of the outgoing government in those positions, "they won't give too much too quickly, so that they would be unable to maintain the status-quo," Yang said.
Joseph Wu (
As a WTO negotiator, Tsai is interested in the direction three links will go after Taiwan has joined, he said.
"Chen has said that the "no haste, be patient" policy can coexist with the three links," Wu said.
Wu said that the new government will have to do something to help open links, "it's the inevitable direction."
Yeh has yet to indicate she is absolutely opposed to the three links, Wu added. "If anything, she will sound out and be cautious opening direct air flights."
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