Fri, Mar 24, 2000 page13

• Making sense of the election

  Following the election victory of Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), the attention of the media and the policy research community has focused on making sense of the outcome. Here are the views of four leading analysts: John Bolton of the American Enterprise Institute, Shelly Rigger of Davidson College, North Carolina, Julian Kuo (郭正亮) of Soochow University, and the Taipei Times' own Antonio Chiang (司馬文武)

  • OPINION EDITOR OF TAIPEI TIMES
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  On the transition to a DPP government John Bolton : Taiwan's democratic process has reached a milestone with the election of an opposition candidate. For the first time, the country will experience a transfer of power and enter into the era of true party politics, a hallmark of a maturing democracy. Antonio Chiang : I think we can learn a little bit about the DPP's governing style by looking at how it has chosen to celebrate its election victory. Prior to the election, the DPP bought many bottles of champagne, and everyone was excitedly anticipating a victory. But on the day of the election, after they learned that they had won, DPP staff did not open a single bottle. This is because they realize the heavy burden of responsibility that has fallen on their shoulders with their victory. Julian Kuo : Chen's government will be the first in which a ROC president does not enjoy a majority in the Legislative Yuan. It is possible that the presidency might face a constitutional deadlock, as the KMT-led Legislative Yuan might not forward the president's agenda. As a prevention against this happening, it is important that Chen form a coalition government, or as he calls it, a cross-party cabinet, in order to garner more cooperation within the Legislative Yuan.

  John Bolton :It is understandable that the incoming government might have some doubts as to how cooperative a party that has been entrenched in power for 50 years might be in giving up power. Both the willingness of former officials to impart information and the independence of the bureaucracy have been questioned. However, as KMT party chairman and president of the ROC, Lee Teng-hui most likely will make sure that the bureaucracy respects public opinion and serves the new government as it served the old. If some people feel that they cannot serve the new government, they should resign. I want to point out that these bumps on the road are inevitable growing pains of a new democracy. There is also concern that those in the security and intelligence apparatus might refuse to cooperate with the new government, but I do not think we should prejudge them. Chen has said over and over again, before and after his election, that he will pick the best person to fill various government positions, regardless of party affiliation. That is a signal from Chen that he wants the transition to be as apolitical as possible, and would like to see his government as nonpartisan as possible. Both sides shoulder the responsibility of making this transition work.

  On nation-building and the development of Taiwan's polity

  

  Antonio Chiang : The victory is not just a simple transfer of power and another step toward democracy; rather, it is an opportunity to reinvigorate the intellectual, cultural and educational discourse in Taiwan, and a chance to redefine what Taiwan is to the world. For too long, Taiwan has been the KMT's Taiwan; therefore, this year's election is more significant than the one in 1996 when the people of Taiwan chose their president for the first time, because it marks the end of that era. Julian Kuo : Without the KMT constantly playing the scare card on the people of Taiwan, Taiwan's polity will become a lot more rational and reasonable. It can become a normal society, instead of living under the shadow of imminent Communist attack.

  Shelly Rigger : Many people ask how Chen plans to heal the ethnic rift. But I would like to propose that the onus of mending that rift should not rest with Chen. If one looks at the voting behavior of mainlanders and Taiwanese, one would find that it is the mainlander group who votes in a block. Taiwanese votes tend to be split between candidates. I think it is the mainlanders' responsibility to come into mainstream society, and stop clinging to their elite minority status. The second generation mainlanders are already doing that, and I encourage the first generation mainlanders to do the same.

  Party Realignment

  Julian Kuo : Party realignment has already begun in Taiwan, as KMT faces implosion and James Soong has announced that he will form a new party. It would be reasonable to assume that Soong will form a new party in time for the National Assembly elections in May. Taiwan's political landscape is changing very quickly. I predict that in two years, the KMT will become a much smaller party, with some members jumping on the bandwagon and joining the DPP, and those who remain being the ineffective party bureaucrats, who will be unable to breath new life into the party.

  Antonio Chiang : It has been five days, but protests continue, demanding the resignation of President Lee as chairman of KMT. I feel that depiction of Lee as a party stalwart, an authoritarian figure akin to the Philippine's Marcos is unfair. We need to put the protest in context. Many people who are demanding his resignation have never truly accepted Lee as their leader. To them, Lee is a pretender -- his ascension to the KMT chairmanship and ROC presidency a historical accident. However, I would like to argue that if it were not for Lee, the KMT might not have survived this long. Lee's reforms and Taiwanization of the KMT gave it an extra 10 years of life. Lee has played a complicated triple role: as president of the Republic of China, he had to maintain the fiction of national unification; as chairman of the KMT, a party with Leninist organization and roots, he had to look and behave like an authoritarian figure; and as a Taiwanese president, he pursued democracy and reform. The Lee path is the democratic path, so even though Lee might not lead the nation any longer, Taiwan will continue to democratize.

  Cross-Strait Relations

  Antonio Chiang : Perhaps the largest impact of the end of KMT political ownership of Taiwan is on cross-strait relations. China can no longer carry out the fiction that Taiwan and the mainland are still in a state of civil war and continue to confine Taiwan under a "one China" rubric. It must deal with a Taiwanese party now. It is unnecessary for Chen to explicitly make any statement declaring Taiwan's de facto sovereign status -- the facts speak for themselves.

  Julian Kuo : Chen will put cross-strait affairs into the hands of Lee Yuan-tseh. And I believe Chen and Lee will put together a committee on cross-strait affairs which will include people from all parties and of various opinions. Cross-strait affairs will not be politicized and partisan. It is probably in Taiwan's best interest to return to the 1992 Singapore formulation of "one China, different interpretations."

  John Bolton : Chen has mentioned that under the premise of sovereignty, dignity and security, Taiwan is prepared to engage China in any topic it would like. Also, there is Lee's two-states theory. Do these pronouncements conflict with the "one China" principle? I do not think we should be too fixated on the "one China" principle. The PRC likes to get people to stick to a slogan and then discuss what the slogan means. But foreign policy is not writing bumper stickers. And as far as I am concerned, nothing is agreed upon until everything is agreed upon. Besides, we must get past "one China" because it has had and still has so many meanings that it confuses more than clarifies. What Taiwan should strive toward is a comprehensive diplomatic initiative to make itself seen and heard around the world. Taiwan has a very precious asset right now, its democracy, and it should use the fact that it represents the will and interest of a discernible group of people -- a representative democracy -- as the basis for its participation on the world stage. As part of that initiative, it should try to become a member of the UN. One way to do this is to seek the revocation of UN Resolution 2758. By arguing the case that with its newfound democracy, it is a legitimate government because it truly represents a people, it will force countries to look at the issue of Taiwan. How do you deny a democracy? At the same time, the motion to repeal UN Resolution 2758 has legal basis. Under the UN Charter, the expulsion of the ROC with the adoption of UN Resolution 2758 is illegal. To officially expel or admit a member, it must have the agreement of all members of the Security Council. Since the ROC was a member of the Security Council, it was impossible that it would vote in favor of its own expulsion. China got into the UN based upon a General Assembly resolution. And strictly speaking, Taiwan independence does not conflict with UN membership. We have the example of East and West German, and North and South Korea.

  Julian Kuo : The independence platform reflects a certain sentiment of the party at a certain point in the party's development. Soon, the DPP will most likely revise the platform and drop the stipulation that the resolution to form the "Republic of Taiwan" be put to a plebiscite, stating instead that the issue of any change to Taiwan's current status be put to plebiscite. This is in step with the purpose and need of the Taiwanese people, leaving the future of the people in their own hands, rather than to any party.

  Shelly Rigger : Is Chen a Taiwan independence (TI) fanatic? The answer is no, and we need to put that question to rest. People often bring up the DPP's TI platform as an indication that the entire party favors the immediate declaration of independence, but from my research on the DPP, many members of the party were not happy that the platform was put into the party charter, because they realized that the platform would be unpopular. And they were proven correct again and again -- first in the 1990 Legislative Yuan election and the second time in the 1992 Legislative Yuan election. They have been trying to pull back from the platform ever since. And if you listen to Chen's first speech after his election, you would realize that the first word he used after the perfunctory introduction was "the Republic of China." Moreover, he made reference only to "the Chinese people," and conducted the entire speech in Mandarin. Therefore, it is extremely unfair for the foreign media to continually use "the pro-independence candidate" as shorthand to describe Chen or to simplify the spirit and substance of DPP to the TI platform. A related question is, would Chen see a backlash against him from his more ardently TI supporters if he is seen to backstep from the independence issue. My answer here is also no. I have been travelling around Taiwan for the past few days, and in the southern and eastern part of the island, the general sense is that people trust Chen enough to know that he might have to make some compromises to be a good and responsible president. John Bolton : On the Chinese side, Beijing's reaction to the election would depend upon its priorities. If Beijing sees entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) as paramount, it will modify its previous vociferous objection to a Chen victory. Congress and the American people always react negatively -- as indicated by polls -- whenever China gets tough on Taiwan. Zhu Rongji's (朱鎔基) comments was nothing but bad news in Washington, DC. That is why the PRC should be very careful in the next few months, because if PNTR is not adopted in the next two or three months, it will not be adopted this year. And any belligerent behavior would only give momentum to the TSEA in the Senate. Unlike in 1996, there are a lot more issues on the table for Beijing this time. It should tread carefully.

  On US Policy Towards Taiwan John Bolton : The triangle between the US, China and Taiwan is way too small. It should not be just the "one China" principle, or a question of sovereignty and recognition. We must be careful that we do not let China narrow the issue when it comes to Taiwan. When that happens, it is bad news for us and bad news for Taiwan. We need to see the larger picture. Our policy towards China and Taiwan should be based on geopolitical considerations and what is in the best interest of the US. The US must express its interests clearly. We are more than happy to trade with China, but we also need to let China know that it cannot threaten the security of Taiwan. Therefore, we need to make an unequivocal commitment to the security of Taiwan. We need to let China know that we mean business when we want a peaceful resolution. Of course, commitment on the US' part does not mean a blank check to Taiwan to do as it pleases. The relationship is reciprocal. Taiwan must realize that our commitment is premised on the understanding that they will not abuse it. I do not buy into the argument that the US should be ambiguous about its commitment to Taiwan because the Taiwanese will take advantage of it. Look at NATO. We are committed to the security of Europe, but we do not see Belgium or the Netherlands leading us into a nuclear confrontation. Why would Taiwan?

  Shelly Rigger : In fact, people probably naturally assume that the DPP is in favor of the TSEA, but many DPP policy-makers are of the opinion that the legislation does more to provoke China than aid Taiwan. They see the legislation as a domestic squabble between the White House and Congress, with Taiwan caught in the middle. The election of Chen should be a wake-up call for the US. They need to start thinking and learning more about the DPP; the KMT is not the only game in town any longer. There is much ignorance among US policy-makers of Chen and his party. They must find some way to fill that intellectual void. They need to learn more about the DPP, rather than go on what they think the DPP is. If they truly see the DPP for who they are and what they stand for, they will realize that Chen is not the enemy, the DPP is not a troublemaker and there is no need to rein in Chen. There is a real need to address the level of misunderstanding that Washington policy-makers have of Chen.

  John Bolton : At a very basic level, the US should realize that it can no longer conduct relations with Taiwan based on understandings and secret agreements reached with the top echelon of the government. We do not talk like that with European democracies. A new paradigm needs to be adopted where the people's sentiments are considered. Even before Taiwan's presidential election, the White House and Congress have been at odds regarding the US' China policy, with the White House being more sympathetic to the PRC and Congress more sympathetic to Taiwan. The tension has both constitutional and political roots. Constitutionally, Congress and the White House are two equal branches of the government, and they are designed to check and balance each other so that no one branch dominates. Therefore, each side tends to be critical and watchful of the other, and both try to exert influence. Politically, the government is split between a Republican Congress and a Democrat White House right now, and they have not seen eye to eye on US China Policy for seven years. Indeed, Senate majority whip Tom Delay's remark that the "one China" policy is outdated and we ought to consider a policy of two Chinese states is only a reflection of long simmering sentiments with many Republican members of Congress. But it is also a reflection of the political climate in Washington, DC. The election of Chen comes at a very sensitive time when the US is considering both Permanent Normal Trading Relations (PNTR) for China and the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (TSEA). At the same time, there is a US presidential election coming up in November. Foreign policy gets mixed up with domestic politics, and things heat up. Representative Delay's comment is the first time a high-ranking political leader has rejected "one China." What happens between the Congress and the White House would be an interesting test of democratic theory.
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