Predictions for the Nov. 29 nine-in-one elections suggest that independent Taipei mayoral candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) has an 85 percent chance of being elected, while his main rival, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Sean Lien (連勝文), has only an 11 percent chance, according to Xfuture.org, also known as the Exchange of Future Events (未來事件交易所).
The election forecast Web site is known for relatively accurate predictions, which are based on “prediction markets,” in which participants “buy” and “sell” contracts on future events based on the idea of a futures exchange.
Xfuture general manager Anson Hung (洪耀南) yesterday said that not only have Ko’s chances of being elected increased, but he could receive 53 percent of the vote (equivalent to 780,000 votes), compared with 43 percent (667,000 votes) for Lien.
Photo: Wu Po-hsuan, Taipei Times
The biggest shift came after a televised debate between Ko and Lien on Nov. 7 and when Ko announced on Thursday last week that he was closing his fundraising account and no longer accepting donations, Hung said, adding that Ko achieved a 7 percentage point lead over Lien that day.
Other predictions by XFuture showed the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leading in eight cities and counties: Greater Tainan, Greater Kaohsiung, Greater Taichung and Keelung, as well as Chiayi, Pingtung, Yunlin and Yilan counties.
The DPP might also win in Penghu and Changhua counties, it said.
Meanwhile, the KMT led in 10 cities and counties: New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Hsinchu City and Chiayi City, as well as Hsinchu, Miaoli, Nantou, Taitung, Kinmen and Lienchiang counties, Xfuture said.
Independent candidates led in Taipei and Hualien County, it said.
The ongoing food scare was a big factor that weighed down KMT candidates, National Taiwan University (NTU) professor Chao Yung-mao (趙永茂) said, adding that President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) low approval ratings might also drive some pan-blue voters to other candidates.
Interparty tension between Ma and Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) added to the perception of a lack of unity in the party, and local factions appear less reliant on the party, he said.
Ko’s lack of political baggage is very appealing to younger and neutral voters — and even to some pro-DPP voters, Chao said.
The Sunflower movement’s protests against the Ma administration’s handling of a proposed cross-strait service trade pact earlier this year has also drawn greater public scrutiny to the two major political parties’ actions as representatives of a democratic system, he said.
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