Independent Taipei mayoral candidate Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) recent remarks about former president Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chiayi mayoral candidate Chen Yi-chen (陳以真) might cost him some support, a forecasting company said yesterday, but he still has a “higher price” on his election chances.
Xfuture.org, also known as the Exchange of Future Events, yesterday offered its predictions for the Nov. 29 nine-in-one local elections. It bases its predictions on “prediction markets,” which entails “collecting effective information through a futures or stock trading mechanism.”
Ko has seen his lead erode a bit following his praise for Chiang’s rule and remarks that Chen was better suited to being a receptionist or appearing in tourism advertisements than to being a mayor, Xfuture chief executive officer Anson Hung (洪耀南) said.
“It is rather a growth in the predicted percentage of the vote — from 45 percent to 50 percent — on KMT mayoral candidate Sean Lien’s (連勝文) part than a decrease for Ko, whose percentage remains about the same at 47.8 percent,” Hung said. “However, Ko still commands a higher price for the prediction of his being elected, with 57.33 percent, as opposed to Lien’s 47.12 percent.”
“While the prediction for the chance of getting elected can be compared to who the traders [voters] think will win, the predicted vote percentage is like favorability ratings,” he added.
The exchange showed the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leading in nine of the 22 cities and counties, and the KMT in 10.
The company said 10 key counties and cities will indicate how the two parties fare in the election: Taipei, Keelung, Greater Taichung, Chiayi and the counties of Hualien, Hsinchu, Penghu, Changhua, Nantou and Yunlin.
Taipei and Greater Taichung are the two most critical battlefields, the company said.
The DPP is not running its own candidates in Taipei, Hualien and Hsinchu, and independent candidates running against the KMT’s nominees might have a chance of getting elected.
Greater Taichung as well as Keelung and Penghu counties are currently KMT-run, but the DPP’s candidates are leading in the surveys, while the races in KMT-run Chiayi, Changhua and Nantou are close between the KMT’s and the DPP’s candidates.
DPP Taichung candidate Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) has a higher chance of winning than KMT Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強), Hung said.
“While Hu’s ‘price’ has seen an uptick, the support he has so far received has not achieved the baseline of 45 percent that is traditionally believed to be sustained by KMT core supporters in Taichung,” Hung said.
DPP-run Yunlin is seeing a proxy war between former KMT commissioner Chang Jung-wei (張榮味) and County Commissioner Su Chi-fen (蘇治芬).
Soochow University political scientist Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明) said there are places where the results “could hardly be altered even by a gun shot,” because the incumbents face little challenge, such as New Taipei City and Greater Tainan.
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