In a development that could impact the security of Taiwan, a new report estimates that China now has 250 nuclear warheads and is continuing to increase the size of its nuclear arsenal.
China is assigning a growing portion of its warheads to long-range missiles capable of reaching the US, the report from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists says.
The US intelligence community predicts that by the mid-2020s, Beijing could more than double the number of these warheads that threaten the US to more than 100.
That situation might very well give Washington reason to delay coming to the aid of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
“When considering how China’s nuclear forces may impact the security of Taiwan, or more precisely how they might deter the US from coming to Taiwan’s military defense in the event of a Chinese attack, it is crucial to consider the number of China’s strategic and theater/tactical nuclear weapons,” International Assessment and Strategy Center senior fellow Rick Fisher told the Taipei Times.
“I would offer the estimate that numbers in both categories are growing and that this should concern Taiwan, the US and all other democracies in Asia,” Fisher said.
He said that “at a minimum” it was unwise for the US to consider further reductions in its nuclear arsenal at a time when China’s nuclear arsenal is growing.
“The capability of the arsenal is also increasing, with liquid-fuel and relatively inaccurate maneuverable missiles being replaced by solid-fuel and more accurate road-mobile missiles,” says the report titled Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2013.
It estimates that China’s current arsenal includes as many as 60 long-range missiles that can reach the US, but at this point only 40 of them — 20 DF-5As and 20 DF-31As — can strike the continental US.
Earlier this year, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington issued a study titled Nuclear Weapons and US-China Relations. It said Taiwan remains the single most plausible and dangerous source of tension and conflict between the US and China.
Although tensions across the Taiwan Strait have subsided since 2008, the situation remains “combustible and complicated,” it said.
“For the foreseeable future, Taiwan is the contingency in which nuclear weapons would most likely become a major factor because the fate of the island is intertwined both with the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party and the reliability of US defense commitments in the Asia-Pacific region,” the CSIS report said.
Fisher said that China does not reveal the current or planned numbers of its nuclear weapons, and goes to great lengths to conceal its nuclear and missile-related planning development, production and deployment.
“There is no Congress in China to ask nosy questions about nuclear weapons, no Freedom of Information Act to harass bureaucrats,” Fisher said.
NEXT GENERATION: The four plants in the Central Taiwan Science Park, designated Fab 25, would consist of four 1.4-nanometer wafer manufacturing plants, TSMC said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) plans to begin construction of four new plants later this year, with the aim to officially launch production of 2-nanometer semiconductor wafers by late 2028, Central Taiwan Science Park Bureau director-general Hsu Maw-shin (許茂新) said. Hsu made the announcement at an event on Friday evening celebrating the Central Taiwan Science Park’s 22nd anniversary. The second phase of the park’s expansion would commence with the initial construction of water detention ponds and other structures aimed at soil and water conservation, Hsu said. TSMC has officially leased the land, with the Central Taiwan Science Park having handed over the
AUKUS: The Australian Ambassador to the US said his country is working with the Pentagon and he is confident that submarine issues will be resolved Australian Ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd on Friday said that if Taiwan were to fall to China’s occupation, it would unleash China’s military capacities and capabilities more broadly. He also said his country is working with the Pentagon on the US Department of Defense’s review of the AUKUS submarine project and is confident that all issues raised will be resolved. Rudd, who served as Australian prime minister from 2007 to 2010 and for three months in 2013, made the remarks at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado and stressed the longstanding US-Australia alliance and his close relationship with the US Undersecretary
‘WORLD WAR III’: Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene said the aid would inflame tensions, but her amendment was rejected 421 votes against six The US House of Representatives on Friday passed the Department of Defense Appropriations Act for fiscal 2026, which includes US$500 million for Taiwan. The bill, which totals US$831.5 billion in discretionary spending, passed in a 221-209 vote. According to the bill, the funds for Taiwan would be administered by the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency and would remain available through Sept. 30, 2027, for the Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative. The legislation authorizes the US Secretary of Defense, with the agreement of the US Secretary of State, to use the funds to assist Taiwan in procuring defense articles and services, and military training. Republican Representative
TAIWAN IS TAIWAN: US Representative Tom Tiffany said the amendment was not controversial, as ‘Taiwan is not — nor has it ever been — part of Communist China’ The US House of Representatives on Friday passed an amendment banning the US Department of Defense from creating, buying or displaying any map that shows Taiwan as part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The “Honest Maps” amendment was approved in a voice vote on Friday as part of the Department of Defense Appropriations Act for the 2026 fiscal year. The amendment prohibits using any funds from the act to create, buy or display maps that show Taiwan, Kinmen, Matsu, Penghu, Wuciou (烏坵), Green Island (綠島) or Orchid Island (Lanyu, 蘭嶼) as part of the PRC. The act includes US$831.5 billion in
RSS