Taiwan may be on a “slippery slope” in its dealings with China, former American Institute in Taiwan chairman Richard Bush wrote recently in a policy paper.
Even if Taipei does not make a “proactive strategic decision” to appease Beijing and Washington does not seek to curry favor with China by sacrificing Taiwan’s interests, “there remains the possibility that Taiwan might undermine itself through inattention or neglect,” he said.
In a policy briefing published by the non-profit Brookings Institution in Washington this week, Bush wrote that Taiwan might become complacent and assume that Beijing’s intentions are so benign that it is prepared to accept some version of the “status quo” in the long term.
“Yet China has a different objective — ending Taiwan’s de facto independence more or less on its terms — and it may not have infinite patience,” he said.
The danger is that a frustrated China might seek to exploit the power asymmetry between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and intimidate Taiwan into accepting “an offer it can’t refuse,” he said.
The first thing Taiwan must do to avoid that situation is to “not create the impression in Beijing that the door on unification is closing forever — which Taiwan is currently doing,” Bush added.
There are four other things Bush said the nation can do “at the margin” to strengthen itself against Chinese pressure.
Economically, it should sustain competitiveness by shifting to a knowledge-based economy and liberalizing economic ties with all major trading partners, not just China.
Taiwan should also reform its political system so that it can better address the real challenges it faces, instead of focusing on relatively superficial issues.
It should also foster a clearer sense of what it means to say that Taiwan is a sovereign entity, not just in its role in the international system, but also regarding cross-strait relations.
Militarily, Taiwan should enhance the deterrent capabilities of its armed forces in ways that raise the costs and uncertainties for Beijing if it were ever to mount an intimidation campaign.
“None of these forms of self-strengthening will be easy, but they will buoy Taiwan’s psychological confidence and reduce the chances of the PRC [People’s Republic of China applying] pressure in the first place,” he said.
For its part, the US should help Taiwan where it can.
“The most obvious ways are economically, by drawing Taiwan into the circle of high-quality liberalization, and militarily, by supporting innovative and cost-effective ways to enhance deterrence,” the briefing said.
In his report, Bush said that the primary reason China has failed to engage Taiwan on its terms is not US arms sales, but “because its negotiating position is unacceptable to the Taiwan public.”
Bush concluded that: “As China rises and seeks to reshape East Asia more to its liking, how the United States responds will be a critical variable. It needs the right mix of accommodation and firmness. Giving way on Taiwan will neither pacify Beijing nor assure our allies.”
As reported by the Taipei Times last week, Bush, who is the director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, recently published a book titled Uncharted Strait: The Future of China-Taiwan Relations.
‘NO SECURITY RISK’: The Railway Bureau reassured the public that the technicians’ activities were limited to technical guidance and did not involve sensitive systems The Railway Bureau yesterday said it had invited eight Chinese technicians to assist with an airport MRT construction project. The bureau issued the confirmation after an Internet user said Chinese nationals had entered the construction zone of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport’s Terminal 3 project. They asked why “individuals from an enemy state” were allowed access to such a major national infrastructure project, which raised serious concerns over Taiwan’s industrial safety, sensitive systems and information security. The bureau’s Northern Region Engineering Branch Office said subcontractor Taiwan Handle Industrial Co (台灣手把工業) of the Taoyuan airport MRT’s “Contract No. CU05 Project A14 Station Civil, MEP &
The National Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology yesterday showcased its locally developed variants of the Vision 60 robotic patrol dog, which it plans to deploy on the nation’s outlying territories in the South China Sea. The variants were produced under the Joint Lab project — created by the institute and domestic companies — and assembled with domestically produced motors, lenses and artificial intelligence (AI) systems alongside licensed tech from the US, Missile and Rocket Systems Research Division deputy director Jen Kuo-kang (任國光) told the media event at a military base in Taipei’s Dazhi (大直) area. Taiwan has built up its strengths
NOT IMMEDIATE: Taiwan has a chance to appeal the proposed 10 percent tariff before it starts, while other countries face a 12.5 percent tariff from the trade office Taiwan is among 60 economies determined by the US to have failed to impose or enforce a ban on the importation of goods produced with forced labor, according to a notice released on Tuesday by the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), which proposed imposing an additional 10 percent or more tariff on them. The USTR in a statement said that following an investigation, it had determined under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 that the failure of the 60 economies to impose and effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labor is
TIT-FOR-TAT: The US allegedly revoked the visa of a Chinese national working at Xinhua News Agency in the US in response to Beijing’s expulsion of Vivian Wang The Presidential Office yesterday condemned China for expelling a New York Times correspondent from Beijing following the newspaper’s interview with President William Lai (賴清德), saying the move highlighted Beijing’s suppression of press freedom and its threat to international news media. Taiwan has noted a series of recent incidents in which Beijing used similar tactics to “threaten and pressure international media outlets and journalists,” Presidential Office spokeswoman Karen Kuo (郭雅慧) said in a statement. “This concerns not only press freedom and freedom of expression, but also the safety of journalists, and Taiwan and relevant partners are paying close attention to the situation,” she
RSS