Efforts to ease tensions in the South China Sea will dominate this week’s Asian security dialogue in Cambodia, analysts say, while the US will be at pains to stress it seeks cooperation with China.
US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton joins the ASEAN Regional Forum in Phnom Penh on Thursday, a few days after foreign ministers from across Southeast Asia open proceedings, with counterparts from China, Japan, the Koreas and Australia also set to attend.
Friction over competing claims in the South China Sea promises to be the hot button issue as the 10-member association holds talks today before opening meetings to include all 27 invited countries. Manila is leading a push for ASEAN to unite to persuade China to accept a “code of conduct” in the sea, where tensions have flared recently, with both Vietnam and the Philippines accusing Beijing of aggressive behavior. China prefers to deal with the claimants individually as it seeks to extend its writ over the resource-rich and strategically important area.
“This is make-or-break time for ASEAN members,” said Carl Thayer, a politics professor and Southeast Asia security expert at the University of New South Wales in Australia. “They have set this month as their self-imposed deadline to come up with a draft code of conduct. There could be progress.”
Taiwan, China and ASEAN members the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, home to vital shipping lanes and believed to be rich in oil and gas deposits.
China recently angered Vietnam by inviting bids for exploration of oil blocks in contested waters, sparking protests in Hanoi earlier this month, while Beijing and Manila are locked in a tense standoff over the Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan Island, 黃岩島), which is also claimed by Taiwan.
At their last summit in April, ASEAN countries were divided over when to include Beijing in discussions about the draft code of conduct, leading to a “big disagreement,” Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said at the time.
However, the bloc is still hoping to reach an agreement with China by the end of the year, 10 years after first committing to creating a legally binding framework for resolving disputes.
US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell said late last month he saw momentum on the issue after noticing “an increase in diplomacy” between ASEAN and China on a potential code of conduct.
The US recently expanded military relations with the Philippines and Vietnam, and the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing will be “the elephant in the room” this week, said Ernie Bower of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Amid concerns that the US’ renewed focus on Asia could antagonize China ahead of a leadership transition this year, Clinton is expected “to downplay US-China friction,” Bower said.
Instead, she will “be at pains to advance US-China cooperation as a main foreign policy objective,” Thayer said.
With that in mind, Clinton may be less outspoken on the South China Sea issue than she was at a regional summit in 2010, when she angered Beijing by saying the US had a “national interest” in open access to the sea.
“Don’t look for fireworks from Secretary Clinton in Phnom Penh,” Bower said. “Look for quiet strength, behind the scenes support for ASEAN positions ... but nothing overt or muscle-heavy from the US.”
Clinton will also want to reassure Asian counterparts that the US is committed to the region and is not just seeking to counter China.
“Secretary Clinton will endeavor to advance a raft of proposals to underscore that the US has much broader interests in Southeast Asian than military rebalancing,” Thayer said.
Her efforts will start even before she arrives in Cambodia, with a quick visit to Hanoi, where she will meet with US and Vietnamese business representatives, and a stop-off in Laos, where she will become the first top US diplomat to visit the communist-run country in 57 years.
After the security forum concludes, Clinton will lead a large US delegation to a business forum in Cambodia’s tourist hub of Siem Reap on Friday.
NO HUMAN ERROR: After the incident, the Coast Guard Administration said it would obtain uncrewed aerial vehicles and vessels to boost its detection capacity Authorities would improve border control to prevent unlawful entry into Taiwan’s waters and safeguard national security, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday after a Chinese man reached the nation’s coast on an inflatable boat, saying he “defected to freedom.” The man was found on a rubber boat when he was about to set foot on Taiwan at the estuary of Houkeng River (後坑溪) near Taiping Borough (太平) in New Taipei City’s Linkou District (林口), authorities said. The Coast Guard Administration’s (CGA) northern branch said it received a report at 6:30am yesterday morning from the New Taipei City Fire Department about a
IN BEIJING’S FAVOR: A China Coast Guard spokesperson said that the Chinese maritime police would continue to carry out law enforcement activities in waters it claims The Philippines withdrew its coast guard vessel from a South China Sea shoal that has recently been at the center of tensions with Beijing. BRP Teresa Magbanua “was compelled to return to port” from Sabina Shoal (Xianbin Shoal, 仙濱暗沙) due to bad weather, depleted supplies and the need to evacuate personnel requiring medical care, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said yesterday in a post on X. The Philippine vessel “will be in tiptop shape to resume her mission” after it has been resupplied and repaired, Philippine Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, who heads the nation’s maritime council, said
REGIONAL STABILITY: Taipei thanked the Biden administration for authorizing its 16th sale of military goods and services to uphold Taiwan’s defense and safety The US Department of State has approved the sale of US$228 million of military goods and services to Taiwan, the US Department of Defense said on Monday. The state department “made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale” to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US for “return, repair and reshipment of spare parts and related equipment,” the defense department’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a news release. Taiwan had requested the purchase of items and services which include the “return, repair and reshipment of classified and unclassified spare parts for aircraft and related equipment; US Government
More than 500 people on Saturday marched in New York in support of Taiwan’s entry to the UN, significantly more people than previous years. The march, coinciding with the ongoing 79th session of the UN General Assembly, comes close on the heels of growing international discourse regarding the meaning of UN Resolution 2758. Resolution 2758, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1971, recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the “only lawful representative of China.” It resulted in the Republic of China (ROC) losing its seat at the UN to the PRC. Taiwan has since been excluded from