Fresh from announcing his presidential run, polls show former premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) in a hotly contested race with former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).
Three new polls released yesterday show a near statistical dead heat between the two contenders for the DPP nomination.
The telephone surveys will be an important indicator as Tsai, who has temporarily stepped down as DPP chairperson, and Su start the party primaries, which will be based entirely on public opinion polls after a party member vote was scrapped.
Photo: Wang Min-wei, Taipei Times
The two officially registered their candidacies with the DPP yesterday. Both paid a NT$5 million (US$169,000) fee — two-thirds of which will be returned to the candidate terminating their campaign.
According to cable news station TVBS’ survey, if the election were held now, Tsai would receive 34 percent of the vote against 41 percent for President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九). Su would take 36 percent against Ma’s 37 percent.
A poll by the Chinese-language China Times showed that Tsai would lose by 6 percent with 30 percent of the vote, with Ma taking 36 percent. Su would get 32 percent to Ma’s 38 percent.
The Chinese-language Apple Daily suggested that both Tsai and Su have higher ratings than Ma. Tsai would receive 49.4 percent against Ma’s 34.3 percent, while Su would get 51.6 percent to Ma’s 29.8 percent.
All three surveys are modeled on the DPP telephone polls, pitting each candidate against the president and nominating the contender with the best prospects.
The China Times poll went a step further, comparing Tsai directly with Su. The newspaper said 32 percent felt Su was better suited to run for president, while 27 percent backed Tsai.
The TVBS poll has a margin of error of 3.3 percent; the China Times poll’s margin of error is 3.2 percent. The Apple Daily poll did not give a margin of error.
Although official registration does not end until tomorrow, both candidates have been active before the party holds informal polls in the next few weeks that will be key to negotiations between Tsai and Su.
At her registration yesterday, Tsai brought about 40 university students holding signs saying: “My first vote for Tsai Ing-wen.”
Tsai hyped her ties with the younger generation, saying that she believed this group would be a critical voting segment next year.
She said the polls would be “used as a reference.”
Su, who arrived an hour before Tsai, said he wanted to “consolidate Taiwan’s different forces and turn Taiwan into a country that provides its people happiness.”
Su was ringed by 12 of the most ardent supporters of his earlier bid for Taipei City mayor, including rapper Dog G (大支) and Internet artist Milkman (牛奶人).
Su said he would take the polls into account and that “all of them are worthy of study.”
The focus is expected to stay on the pair in the next month as party insiders watch closely for any signs that a deal can be brokered between the two.
DPP caucus chief Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘), the acting DPP chairperson, said he had yet to talk privately with the two candidates about scheduling closed-door discussions, but it is understood that at least two sessions will be held.
Former premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), who defeated Su in the 2008 presidential primaries, said it was important that the candidates be able to “look at the big picture at such a critical time.”
According to the schedule passed by the DPP Central Executive Committee, a presidential candidate will be chosen by May 4, if not sooner, pending the discussions between Tsai and Su.
If the discussions fail, telephone polls will be held between April 25 and April 29.
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