The likelihood that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would win the presidential election in 2012 surpassed that of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) following Saturday’s special municipality elections, a university prediction center said yesterday.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the possibility of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
Results from the five elections showed that although the KMT won three of the five mayoral seats, it gained only 44.5 percent, or 3.4 million, of the total votes compared with the DPP’s 49.9 percent, or 3.8 million votes.
PHOTO: HOU CHENG-HSU, TAIPEI TIMES
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center said the odds that the KMT would win the 2012 poll dropped from NT$49.4 on Oct. 26 to NT$46.7 on Saturday.
In contrast, the value of the DPP stood at NT$56.9 yesterday, an increase of NT$5.3.
The center said since the two parties completed nominations for Saturday’s elections at the end of May, the prospects of their winning the 2012 presidential election remained at around NT$50. However, the price of the KMT fell to NT$48.6 on Nov. 14 and down to NT$46.7 on Thursday. That of the DPP increased to NT$53.1 at the end of last month and reached NT$55.3 on Friday.
GRAPHIC: TT
The center also surveyed the possibility of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) winning re-election in 2012. The center said the price hovered around NT$34 and NT$35 between May 27 and Nov. 14. It fell to NT$32.6 on Nov. 15 and descended further to NT$30.3 on Saturday. The special municipality elections clearly had an impact on Ma’s chances of winning, the center said.
Of the nominees, Ma remained the most favored KMT candidate, whose latest price was NT$77.7 yesterday. Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) was valued at NT$16.2, Greater Taichung mayor-elect Jason Hu (胡志強) was NT$5.8 and Sinbei City mayor-elect Eric Chu (朱立倫) was NT$5.4.
Among the DPP’s possible presidential hopefuls predicted by the center were DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), former premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and former premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷).
The center said that the likelihood that Tsai would represent her party in the 2012 election was NT$40 on May 27 and increased to NT$42.5 on June 21, but plunged to NT$32.6 on Thursday. However, it climbed up to NT$35.5 after Saturday’s elections.
That of Su was NT$12.4 on Nov. 20 and rose to NT$14.6 on Friday. It jumped up to NT$29.1 yesterday.
Hsieh’s value surged from NT$17.5 on June 25 to NT$44 on Friday. It has since dropped, however, to NT$39.9.
Despite the latest values suggested by the prediction market center, re-elected Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) said yesterday he was optimistic that Ma would be re-elected in 2012.
Hau said the party’s three-to-two win is “a good sign” that the KMT has risen from a position where its strongholds were believed to have been at risk.
“I am cautiously optimistic about President Ma’s chances in the 2012 election,” Hau said, adding that the shaky forecasts of the party’s performance in the elections were due to the global financial crisis and the problems caused by Typhoon Morakot, Taiwan’s deadliest storm ever, which hit on Aug. 8 last year.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY CNA
A signaling system malfunction disrupted high-speed rail (HSR) services beginning at 8am today, with trains temporarily reduced to three northbound and three southbound trains per hour as authorities conduct inspections. The malfunction occurred on a section of track in Miaoli County during pre-operation checks early this morning, forcing northbound and southbound trains to use a single track, the HSR operator said. The regular schedule has been replaced with three hourly trains offering only nonreserved seating in each direction, stopping at every station, it said, adding that business class cars would still have reserved seating. Departures from terminal stations are scheduled at the top
DRONE CENTRAL: Taiwan aims to become Asia’s democratic hub for drones, with most exports focused on high-quality military-grade models, an official said Taiwan’s drone industry is expected to expand significantly by 2030, producing 100,000 units per month and exporting half of them, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday. Current drone production capacity is about 15,000 units per month, but the industry can quickly scale up as demand increases, Industrial Development Administration Director-General Chiou Chyou-huey (邱求慧) told a news conference in Taipei. Taiwan’s drone output grew 2.5-fold last year to NT$12.9 billion (US$408.3 million) under a government program to develop the uncrewed vehicle sector, he said. The Executive Yuan in October last year approved plans to invest NT$44.2 billion into domestic production of uncrewed aerial
VERBOSE VESSELS: A CGA cutter and a China Coast Guard exchanged verbal barbs for more than a day in Taiwanese-controlled waters before the Chinese vessel left The Taiwanese and Chinese coast guards had a standoff near the strategically located Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) in the north of the South China Sea, the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) said yesterday. The two sides engaged in intense radio exchanges over sovereignty claims during the 33-hour standoff. China Coast Guard vessel 3501 eventually left the restricted waters, 26.6 nautical miles (49.2km) west of the Pratas Islands, at 5pm yesterday, the CGA said. Lying approximately between southern Taiwan and Hong Kong, the Taiwan-controlled Pratas are seen by some security experts as vulnerable to Chinese attack due to their distance — more than
WARNING: China should stop engaging in actions that undermine regional peace and stability, as it would only build resentment among people across the Strait, the CGA said China has deployed more than 100 navy, coast guard and other vessels in waters from the Yellow Sea to the South China Sea and the western Pacific since US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) met in Beijing, National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) said yesterday. “In this part of the world, #China is the one & only PROBLEM wrecking the #StatusQuo & threatening regional peace & stability,” Wu wrote on X. In a separate post, he said Beijing was coercing Taiwan’s maritime domain, calling it illegal and provocative, after the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) expelled a
RSS