The likelihood that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would win the presidential election in 2012 surpassed that of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) following Saturday’s special municipality elections, a university prediction center said yesterday.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the possibility of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
Results from the five elections showed that although the KMT won three of the five mayoral seats, it gained only 44.5 percent, or 3.4 million, of the total votes compared with the DPP’s 49.9 percent, or 3.8 million votes.
PHOTO: HOU CHENG-HSU, TAIPEI TIMES
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center said the odds that the KMT would win the 2012 poll dropped from NT$49.4 on Oct. 26 to NT$46.7 on Saturday.
In contrast, the value of the DPP stood at NT$56.9 yesterday, an increase of NT$5.3.
The center said since the two parties completed nominations for Saturday’s elections at the end of May, the prospects of their winning the 2012 presidential election remained at around NT$50. However, the price of the KMT fell to NT$48.6 on Nov. 14 and down to NT$46.7 on Thursday. That of the DPP increased to NT$53.1 at the end of last month and reached NT$55.3 on Friday.
GRAPHIC: TT
The center also surveyed the possibility of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) winning re-election in 2012. The center said the price hovered around NT$34 and NT$35 between May 27 and Nov. 14. It fell to NT$32.6 on Nov. 15 and descended further to NT$30.3 on Saturday. The special municipality elections clearly had an impact on Ma’s chances of winning, the center said.
Of the nominees, Ma remained the most favored KMT candidate, whose latest price was NT$77.7 yesterday. Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) was valued at NT$16.2, Greater Taichung mayor-elect Jason Hu (胡志強) was NT$5.8 and Sinbei City mayor-elect Eric Chu (朱立倫) was NT$5.4.
Among the DPP’s possible presidential hopefuls predicted by the center were DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), former premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and former premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷).
The center said that the likelihood that Tsai would represent her party in the 2012 election was NT$40 on May 27 and increased to NT$42.5 on June 21, but plunged to NT$32.6 on Thursday. However, it climbed up to NT$35.5 after Saturday’s elections.
That of Su was NT$12.4 on Nov. 20 and rose to NT$14.6 on Friday. It jumped up to NT$29.1 yesterday.
Hsieh’s value surged from NT$17.5 on June 25 to NT$44 on Friday. It has since dropped, however, to NT$39.9.
Despite the latest values suggested by the prediction market center, re-elected Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) said yesterday he was optimistic that Ma would be re-elected in 2012.
Hau said the party’s three-to-two win is “a good sign” that the KMT has risen from a position where its strongholds were believed to have been at risk.
“I am cautiously optimistic about President Ma’s chances in the 2012 election,” Hau said, adding that the shaky forecasts of the party’s performance in the elections were due to the global financial crisis and the problems caused by Typhoon Morakot, Taiwan’s deadliest storm ever, which hit on Aug. 8 last year.
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