The likelihood that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would win the presidential election in 2012 surpassed that of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) following Saturday’s special municipality elections, a university prediction center said yesterday.
Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the possibility of a future event. Members can tender virtual bids on events, with the bidding price reflecting the probability.
Results from the five elections showed that although the KMT won three of the five mayoral seats, it gained only 44.5 percent, or 3.4 million, of the total votes compared with the DPP’s 49.9 percent, or 3.8 million votes.
PHOTO: HOU CHENG-HSU, TAIPEI TIMES
On a scale of NT$0 to NT$100, National Chengchi University’s Prediction Market Center said the odds that the KMT would win the 2012 poll dropped from NT$49.4 on Oct. 26 to NT$46.7 on Saturday.
In contrast, the value of the DPP stood at NT$56.9 yesterday, an increase of NT$5.3.
The center said since the two parties completed nominations for Saturday’s elections at the end of May, the prospects of their winning the 2012 presidential election remained at around NT$50. However, the price of the KMT fell to NT$48.6 on Nov. 14 and down to NT$46.7 on Thursday. That of the DPP increased to NT$53.1 at the end of last month and reached NT$55.3 on Friday.
GRAPHIC: TT
The center also surveyed the possibility of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) winning re-election in 2012. The center said the price hovered around NT$34 and NT$35 between May 27 and Nov. 14. It fell to NT$32.6 on Nov. 15 and descended further to NT$30.3 on Saturday. The special municipality elections clearly had an impact on Ma’s chances of winning, the center said.
Of the nominees, Ma remained the most favored KMT candidate, whose latest price was NT$77.7 yesterday. Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) was valued at NT$16.2, Greater Taichung mayor-elect Jason Hu (胡志強) was NT$5.8 and Sinbei City mayor-elect Eric Chu (朱立倫) was NT$5.4.
Among the DPP’s possible presidential hopefuls predicted by the center were DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), former premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and former premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷).
The center said that the likelihood that Tsai would represent her party in the 2012 election was NT$40 on May 27 and increased to NT$42.5 on June 21, but plunged to NT$32.6 on Thursday. However, it climbed up to NT$35.5 after Saturday’s elections.
That of Su was NT$12.4 on Nov. 20 and rose to NT$14.6 on Friday. It jumped up to NT$29.1 yesterday.
Hsieh’s value surged from NT$17.5 on June 25 to NT$44 on Friday. It has since dropped, however, to NT$39.9.
Despite the latest values suggested by the prediction market center, re-elected Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) said yesterday he was optimistic that Ma would be re-elected in 2012.
Hau said the party’s three-to-two win is “a good sign” that the KMT has risen from a position where its strongholds were believed to have been at risk.
“I am cautiously optimistic about President Ma’s chances in the 2012 election,” Hau said, adding that the shaky forecasts of the party’s performance in the elections were due to the global financial crisis and the problems caused by Typhoon Morakot, Taiwan’s deadliest storm ever, which hit on Aug. 8 last year.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY CNA
LONG FLIGHT: The jets would be flown by US pilots, with Taiwanese copilots in the two-seat F-16D variant to help familiarize them with the aircraft, the source said The US is expected to fly 10 Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block 70/72 jets to Taiwan over the coming months to fulfill a long-awaited order of 66 aircraft, a defense official said yesterday. Word that the first batch of the jets would be delivered soon was welcome news to Taiwan, which has become concerned about delays in the delivery of US arms amid rising military tensions with China. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said the initial tranche of the nation’s F-16s are rolling off assembly lines in the US and would be flown under their own power to Taiwan by way
CHIP WAR: The new restrictions are expected to cut off China’s access to Taiwan’s technologies, materials and equipment essential to building AI semiconductors Taiwan has blacklisted Huawei Technologies Co (華為) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC, 中芯), dealing another major blow to the two companies spearheading China’s efforts to develop cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) chip technologies. The Ministry of Economic Affairs’ International Trade Administration has included Huawei, SMIC and several of their subsidiaries in an update of its so-called strategic high-tech commodities entity list, the latest version on its Web site showed on Saturday. It did not publicly announce the change. Other entities on the list include organizations such as the Taliban and al-Qaeda, as well as companies in China, Iran and elsewhere. Local companies need
CRITICISM: It is generally accepted that the Straits Forum is a CCP ‘united front’ platform, and anyone attending should maintain Taiwan’s dignity, the council said The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) yesterday said it deeply regrets that former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) echoed the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “one China” principle and “united front” tactics by telling the Straits Forum that Taiwanese yearn for both sides of the Taiwan Strait to move toward “peace” and “integration.” The 17th annual Straits Forum yesterday opened in Xiamen, China, and while the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) local government heads were absent for the first time in 17 years, Ma attended the forum as “former KMT chairperson” and met with Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Chairman Wang Huning (王滬寧). Wang
OBJECTS AT SEA: Satellites with synthetic-aperture radar could aid in the detection of small Chinese boats attempting to illegally enter Taiwan, the space agency head said Taiwan aims to send the nation’s first low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite into space in 2027, while the first Formosat-8 and Formosat-9 spacecraft are to be launched in October and 2028 respectively, the National Science and Technology Council said yesterday. The council laid out its space development plan in a report reviewed by members of the legislature’s Education and Culture Committee. Six LEO satellites would be produced in the initial phase, with the first one, the B5G-1A, scheduled to be launched in 2027, the council said in the report. Regarding the second satellite, the B5G-1B, the government plans to work with private contractors