Japanese business strategist Kenichi Ohmae yesterday called on Taiwan to be cautious about becoming overly dependent on China following the signing of an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China.
To be “overly dependent on China would be very dangerous,” Ohmae told a forum at the Presidential Office yesterday, urging Taiwan to look beyond the Chinese market’s 440 million middle-class population and diversify toward other middle-class consumers, whose annual incomes range between US$5,000 and US$35,000, throughout emerging countries in Asia, including 220 million in India.
Calling an ECFA an “elaborately designed vitamin,” Ohmae said the pact could help stimulate Taiwan’s economy and that Tokyo was paying close attention to developments surrounding the deal.
PHOTO: CNA
Taiwan must spare no time taking immediate action to enter the world stage, he said.
“I would not be surprised [to see 10 percent growth in GDP this year]. The next few years will probably be the most critical years for Taiwan to move up in the global [economic] stage,” Ohmae said, adding that the window of opportunity for Taiwan to tap into the Chinese market would probably close in less than two years.
“To be honest with you, we didn’t expect Taiwan and China would produce any good results at the negotiation table,” he said. “However, what amazes us is that China has showed a tremendous amount of patience. We think the negotiations have been going very well and there is a big chance for Taiwan to become a significant hub in the Greater China area.”
During the question-and-answer session, Ohmae criticized US President Barack Obama for asking China to appreciate its currency, saying Obama was “wrong” and that China should learn a lesson from Japan’s experience of bowing to US pressure to boost the yen.
Ohmae said he did not think China should listen to US complaints about the yuan because even after Japan agreed to Washington’s demands on the yen, the US still enjoyed a trade surplus and US companies were still reluctant to return to their homeland.
“China should learn a lesson from us,” he said. “The US and President Obama are wrong about asking other countries to increase the value of their currency, while what they should have done is to reform their labor system.”
Taiwanese exports to China helped Taiwan recover more quickly than other states from the impact of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, Ohmae said.
“I can’t understand why some people in the country would complain about it,” he said. “Why would some journalists complain?”
The Presidential Office said that during a private meeting with Ohmae before his speech, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) asked him whether Taiwan’s economy was overly reliant on China.
“No, compared with other states in Asia, Taiwan is not overly reliant on China,” the office quoted Ohmae as saying.
Meanwhile, Ma said yesterday China-bound exports would continue to grow after an ECFA is signed, but urged the public not to fret about the negative impact of over-reliance on China.
Ma said some worried that Taiwan would be over-reliant on China, which could have an adverse impact on the economy and politics. Others were not so worried because they thought the whole world was increasingly depending on China and as long as the country controlled key upstream technologies, there was no need to worry about an increase in bilateral trade, he said.
Citing the example of Japan, Ma said bilateral trade between Taiwan and Japan had remained significant and Japan enjoyed a substantial trade surplus. However, its economic dependence on Taiwan was never an issue, he said.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY CNA
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