A major new report from the US recommends that Taiwan develop its defense industry and be prepared to fight alone if China launches an all-out attack.
Released this week in Washington by the Taiwan Policy Working Group, Deter, Defend, Repel and Partner: A Defense Strategy for Taiwan says that Taipei should be ready to respond to an “array of threats and military contingencies” including intimidating live-fire exercises, a blockade, seizure of an outlying island or a full-scale invasion.
The report stresses that even though cross-strait tensions have been significantly reduced under the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), the Republic of China (ROC) needs to build a military strong enough to make the use of force against it unlikely.
“Taiwan should be able to mount an effective defense and should be able to continue to fight on its own in a drawn-out conflict,” the report said.
“There is much speculation about how the US would react to a Chinese provocation in the Taiwan Strait,” the report said.
“The ROC military certainly hopes that the US would offer assistance, if not intervene more directly. Taipei cannot, however, count on this development. The defense establishment should, then, prepare to fight the PLA [People’s Liberation Army], from the opening shots through the conflict’s resolution, as if it were to defend itself entirely on its own,” the report said.
“Should the PRC attempt to physically occupy Taiwan, the ROC military should be prepared to repel an amphibious invasion; sustain an organized ground defense under central authority further inland; and in a worst-case scenario, be prepared for decentralized resistance,” it said.
The report was written by Dan Blumenthal, an official in former US president George W. Bush’s administration who is now a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI); Michael Mazza, a research assistant in Asian studies at AEI; Gary Schmitt, a resident scholar at AEI and former official in the Reagan administration; Randall Schriver, president of the Project 2049 Institute and former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the Bush administration and Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute.
Quoting former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, the report says that Taiwan, like a guerrilla force, must learn to “win by not losing.”
While the report does not mention specific weapons systems, it argues that a diminished commitment to Taiwan’s defense will reduce Taipei’s leverage in dealing with Bejing and “could make the peaceful resolution of differences less likely in the future.”
“It is our view that a strong ROC defense is essential if future cross-strait discussions are to be carried out with confidence, with mutual respect, and free of intimidation,” it said.
At a press conference to launch the report, Schriver said: “The military buildup opposite Taiwan continues apace. It hasn’t slowed, it hasn’t remained static, it has increased. It compels us to take proactive actions to address that.”
“You help Taiwan with its defense because you want to create an environment and a confidence to engage in meaningful cross-strait diplomacy. No one wants to negotiate with a gun to their head,” he said.
The report was discussed extensively with the Ma administration as it was being prepared.
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