A major new report from the US recommends that Taiwan develop its defense industry and be prepared to fight alone if China launches an all-out attack.
Released this week in Washington by the Taiwan Policy Working Group, Deter, Defend, Repel and Partner: A Defense Strategy for Taiwan says that Taipei should be ready to respond to an “array of threats and military contingencies” including intimidating live-fire exercises, a blockade, seizure of an outlying island or a full-scale invasion.
The report stresses that even though cross-strait tensions have been significantly reduced under the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), the Republic of China (ROC) needs to build a military strong enough to make the use of force against it unlikely.
“Taiwan should be able to mount an effective defense and should be able to continue to fight on its own in a drawn-out conflict,” the report said.
“There is much speculation about how the US would react to a Chinese provocation in the Taiwan Strait,” the report said.
“The ROC military certainly hopes that the US would offer assistance, if not intervene more directly. Taipei cannot, however, count on this development. The defense establishment should, then, prepare to fight the PLA [People’s Liberation Army], from the opening shots through the conflict’s resolution, as if it were to defend itself entirely on its own,” the report said.
“Should the PRC attempt to physically occupy Taiwan, the ROC military should be prepared to repel an amphibious invasion; sustain an organized ground defense under central authority further inland; and in a worst-case scenario, be prepared for decentralized resistance,” it said.
The report was written by Dan Blumenthal, an official in former US president George W. Bush’s administration who is now a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI); Michael Mazza, a research assistant in Asian studies at AEI; Gary Schmitt, a resident scholar at AEI and former official in the Reagan administration; Randall Schriver, president of the Project 2049 Institute and former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the Bush administration and Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute.
Quoting former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, the report says that Taiwan, like a guerrilla force, must learn to “win by not losing.”
While the report does not mention specific weapons systems, it argues that a diminished commitment to Taiwan’s defense will reduce Taipei’s leverage in dealing with Bejing and “could make the peaceful resolution of differences less likely in the future.”
“It is our view that a strong ROC defense is essential if future cross-strait discussions are to be carried out with confidence, with mutual respect, and free of intimidation,” it said.
At a press conference to launch the report, Schriver said: “The military buildup opposite Taiwan continues apace. It hasn’t slowed, it hasn’t remained static, it has increased. It compels us to take proactive actions to address that.”
“You help Taiwan with its defense because you want to create an environment and a confidence to engage in meaningful cross-strait diplomacy. No one wants to negotiate with a gun to their head,” he said.
The report was discussed extensively with the Ma administration as it was being prepared.
While the report does say it, the authors made it clear in their presentation that they were in favor of the US selling more F-16s to Taiwan and supporting Taiwan’s quest for a submarine force.
Blumenthal said that if countries like North Korea and Colombia could build their own submarines, then a technologically advanced society like Taiwan could certainly do so.
“We tried to put ourselves in Taiwan’s shoes. The key would be to defend four key domains, the information domain, the air domain, the maritime domain and your own ground,” he said.
“Of course Taiwan needs the upgraded F-16. If you say Taiwan should not have the upgraded F-16 you are saying that Taiwan should not have an air force. People make arguments that fixed wing aircraft and their bases are very vulnerable. But you can disperse and harden your facilities and low and behold your aircraft become more survivable,” Blumenthal said.
“Technology could be leveraged to increase the ROC’s military power. Taiwan is home to a number of industries [in areas such as information technology, nanotechnology and aerospace] in which it excels and that have considerable defense applications,” the report said.
“With focused government investment, Taiwan has the potential to field innovative defense systems. Working with counterparts in the US and elsewhere, Taiwan has opportunities to leverage technological strengths in, for example, microelectronics and materials science and to design, develop and manufacture creative solutions to many of its most vexing military problems,” it said.
“A strong domestic defense industry could create yet another path for Taiwan’s economic growth. With the ROC’s highly innovative workforce and access to worldwide markets, Taiwan’s own defense industry could flourish. The industry would have a ready-made market in Taiwan, precisely because the ROC military is limited in its ability to purchase weapons systems abroad. It would also further diversify options for Taiwan’s own exports,” it said.
“Innovative, high-tech enterprises in Taiwan could become qualified suppliers of components and subassemblies for the US Department of Defense and defense industry. The resulting job creation in Taiwan could shore up support within Taiwan for defense spending,” it said.
William Murray, a China expert at the Naval War College, also present at the launch, questioned Taiwan’s need for more F-16s.
“On the modern battlefield, if you can hide you can survive. But if you are a fixed target you probably face destruction. So, I wonder how aircraft runways can survive in Taiwan. The question is, ‘how do you get them to survive the initial bombardment?’ If you can’t protect the runways, I am not sure what the F-16s do. I agree that the F-16 itself can be survivable but without a runway it is not flyable. I don’t know that it’s the best thing for Taiwan,” Murray said.
The report said Taiwan’s military should have four key missions: Deter coercion; defend against a spectrum of coercive scenarios; repel an invasion and fight a land war; and partner with civilian responders and with foreign militaries.
“Taiwan needs to be able to deter an air campaign by showing it can shoot down PLA Air Force fighters and bombers; severely complicate efforts to establish a maritime blockade; degrade substantially an amphibious attack; and, if necessary, demonstrate it can endure a protracted ground campaign on the island itself,” the report said.
“Taiwan faces the most significant military challenge in the world,” Stokes said.
ROLLER-COASTER RIDE: More than five earthquakes ranging from magnitude 4.4 to 5.5 on the Richter scale shook eastern Taiwan in rapid succession yesterday afternoon Back-to-back weather fronts are forecast to hit Taiwan this week, resulting in rain across the nation in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration said yesterday, as it also warned residents in mountainous regions to be wary of landslides and rockfalls. As the first front approached, sporadic rainfall began in central and northern parts of Taiwan yesterday, the agency said, adding that rain is forecast to intensify in those regions today, while brief showers would also affect other parts of the nation. A second weather system is forecast to arrive on Thursday, bringing additional rain to the whole nation until Sunday, it
CONDITIONAL: The PRC imposes secret requirements that the funding it provides cannot be spent in states with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, Emma Reilly said China has been bribing UN officials to obtain “special benefits” and to block funding from countries that have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a former UN employee told the British House of Commons on Tuesday. At a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee hearing into “international relations within the multilateral system,” former Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) employee Emma Reilly said in a written statement that “Beijing paid bribes to the two successive Presidents of the [UN] General Assembly” during the two-year negotiation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Another way China exercises influence within the UN Secretariat is
LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE: The agency advised the public to avoid visiting mountainous regions due to more expected aftershocks and rainfall from a series of weather fronts A series of earthquakes over the past few days were likely aftershocks of the April 3 earthquake in Hualien County, with further aftershocks to be expected for up to a year, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. Based on the nation’s experience after the quake on Sept. 21, 1999, more aftershocks are possible over the next six months to a year, the agency said. A total of 103 earthquakes of magnitude 4 on the local magnitude scale or higher hit Hualien County from 5:08pm on Monday to 10:27am yesterday, with 27 of them exceeding magnitude 5. They included two, of magnitude
Taiwan’s first drag queen to compete on the internationally acclaimed RuPaul’s Drag Race, Nymphia Wind (妮妃雅), was on Friday crowned the “Next Drag Superstar.” Dressed in a sparkling banana dress, Nymphia Wind swept onto the stage for the final, and stole the show. “Taiwan this is for you,” she said right after show host RuPaul announced her as the winner. “To those who feel like they don’t belong, just remember to live fearlessly and to live their truth,” she said on stage. One of the frontrunners for the past 15 episodes, the 28-year-old breezed through to the final after weeks of showcasing her unique