Several recent events, from an eagle-eyed spotting of an image on Google Earth to an overt military delivery from Russia, suggest that China is continuing its rapid expansion of a submarine fleet that would be particularly useful in a conflict with the US over Taiwan, analysts and military officials said.
US and other Western military analysts estimate that China now has more than 30 advanced and increasingly stealthy submarines, and dozens of older, obsolete types. By the end of the decade, they say, China will have more submarines than the US, although it will still lag behind in overall ability.
"I would say that the US feels a strong threat from Chinese submarines," said Andrei Chang, an expert on Chinese and Taiwan military forces and editor of Kanwa Defense Review. "China now has more submarines than Russia, and the speed they are building them is amazing."
The US Navy developed a range of antisubmarine sensors and weapons in the Cold War that are still considered the world's best. But fighting submarines has been less of a military priority since then, experts say.
Several events have shed light on the growth and technological advances in China's fleet.
In late 2006, one of China's new Song-class conventional submarines remained undetected as it shadowed the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk off the coast of Okinawa, Japan, although the exact details of the encounter remain the subject of continuing debate. It then surfaced well within torpedo range.
To some China experts in the US military, this was an aggressive signal to Washington that China could challenge the US Navy in waters around Taiwan. It also showed that Chinese submarine technology had advanced more rapidly than some experts had expected.
"The US had no idea it was there," said Allan Behm, a security analyst in Canberra, Australia, and a former senior Australian Defense Department official. "This is the great capability of very quiet, conventional submarines."
In July, in another sign of technological progress, China displayed photographs and models of its new Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine at an exhibition in Beijing. Two submarines of this class are in service, the official People's Daily newspaper reported then.
In October, Hans Kristensen, a researcher with the Federation of American Scientists, spotted a Google Earth satellite image that seemed to show two of China's Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. Some military analysts were surprised that China had built a second submarine of this class so soon after the first, in 2004.
And to put the improvement of its fleet on a fast track, China has also taken delivery of 12 advanced Kilo-class conventional submarines from Russia, defense experts say. They say the designs of the newest Chinese submarines show evidence of technical assistance from Russia.
Many security experts, including senior Pentagon analysts, say that China's main objective in upgrading its submarine fleet is the ability to delay or deter US intervention on behalf of Taiwan.
Stealthy submarines would pose a direct threat to the deployment of US aircraft carrier battle groups, likely the first line of response to a Taiwan crisis, security experts say.
The Pentagon is monitoring China closely, officials say.
"Chinese submarines have very impressive capabilities, and their numbers are increasing," the senior US military commander in Asia, Admiral Timothy Keating, said in Beijing recently.
He urged China to be more open about its plans, which he said would reduce the risk of crisis or conflict.
Senior Chinese officers have said that the buildup is strictly defensive.
The Legislative Yuan’s Finance Committee yesterday approved proposed amendments to the Amusement Tax Act (娛樂稅法) that would abolish taxes on films, cultural activities and competitive sporting events, retaining the fee only for dance halls and golf courses. The proposed changes would set the maximum tax rate for dance halls and golf courses at 50 and 20 percent respectively, with local governments authorized to suspend the levies. Article 2 of the act says that “amusement tax shall be levied on tickets sold or fees charged by amusement places, facilities or activities” in six categories: “Cinema; professional singing, story-telling, dancing, circus, magic show, acrobatics
Tainan, Taipei and New Taipei City recorded the highest fines nationwide for illegal accommodations in the first quarter of this year, with fines issued in the three cities each exceeding NT$7 million (US$220,639), Tourism Administration data showed. Among them, Taipei had the highest number of illegal short-term rental units, with 410. There were 3,280 legally registered hotels nationwide in the first quarter, down by 14 properties, or 0.43 percent, from a year earlier, likely indicating operators exiting the market, the agency said. However, the number of unregistered properties rose to 1,174, including 314 illegal hotels and 860 illegal short-term rental
INFLATION UP? The IMF said CPI would increase to 1.5 percent this year, while the DGBAS projected it would rise to 1.68 percent, with GDP per capita of US$44,181 The IMF projected Taiwan’s real GDP would grow 5.2 percent this year, up from its 2.1 percent outlook in January, despite fears of global economic disruptions sparked by the US-Iran conflict. Taiwan’s consumer price index (CPI) is projected to increase to 1.5 percent, while unemployment would be 3.4 percent, roughly in line with estimates for Asia as a whole, the international body wrote in its Global Economic Outlook Report published in the US on Monday. The figures are comparatively better than the IMF outlook for the rest of the world, which pegged real GDP growth at 3.1 percent, down from 3.3 percent
CREDIT-GRABBER: China said its coast guard rescued the crew of a fishing vessel that caught fire, who were actually rescued by a nearby Taiwanese boat and the CGA Maritime search and rescue operations do not have borders, and China should not use a shipwreck to infringe upon Taiwanese sovereignty, the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) said yesterday. The coast guard made the statement in response to the China Coast Guard (CCG) saying it saved a Taiwanese fishing boat. The Chuan Yu No. 6 (全漁6號), a fishing vessel registered in Keelung, on Thursday caught fire and sank in waters northeast of Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台). The vessel left Keelung’s Badouzih Fishing Harbor (八斗子漁港) at 3:35pm on Sunday last week, with seven people on board — a 62-year-old Taiwanese captain surnamed Chang (張) and six
RSS