A classified Pentagon assessment concludes that long battlefield tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus persistent episodes involving terrorists and other threats, have prevented the US military from improving its ability to respond to new crises, The Associated Press has learned.
Despite security gains in Iraq, a "significant" risk remains that the strained US military cannot react quickly and fully to another outbreak elsewhere, the report says.
Last year the Pentagon raised that threat risk from "moderate" to "significant." This year, the report will maintain this "significant" risk level, pointing to the military's continuing struggle against a stubborn insurgency in Iraq and its lead role in the NATO-led war in Afghanistan.
The Pentagon, however, will say that its efforts to increase the size of the military, replace equipment and bolster partnerships overseas will help lower the risk over time, defense officials said on Friday. They spoke on condition of anonymity.
Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has completed the risk assessment, which is expected to be delivered to Congress this month. Because he has concluded the risk is significant, his report will also include a letter from Defense Secretary Robert Gates that will outline what the Pentagon is doing to reduce it.
The risk level was raised to "significant" last year by Mullen's predecessor, US Marine General Peter Pace.
This week in Congress, Mullen provided a glimpse into his thinking on the review. Pentagon officials confirmed on Friday that the assessment is finished and acknowledged some of the factors Gates will cite in his letter.
"The risk has basically stayed consistent, stayed steady," Mullen told the House Armed Services Committee. "It is significant."
He said the 15-month tours in Iraq and Afghanistan are too long and must be reduced to 12 months, with longer rest periods at home.
"We continue to build risk with respect to that," he said.
Other major national security problems include threats from countries that have weapons of mass destruction, as well as the need to replace equipment worn out and destroyed during more than six years of war.
On a positive note, Mullen pointed to security gains in Iraq, brought on in part by the increase in US forces ordered there by President George W. Bush last year.
There, "the threat has receded and al-Qaeda ... is on the run," he said. "We've reduced risk there. We've got more stability there as an example."
The annual review grades the military's ability to meet demands of the nation's military strategy, which would include fighting the wars as well as being able to respond to any potential outbreaks in places such as North Korea, Iran, Lebanon and China.
The latest review covers the military's status for last year, but the readiness level has see-sawed during the Iraq War. For example, the risk for 2004 was assessed as "significant," but it improved to "moderate" in 2005 and 2006.
Last year, when Pace increased the risk level, a report from Gates that accompanied the assessment said that the military was working to improve war fighting capabilities, but it "may take several years to reduce risk to acceptable levels."
Gates is expected to inform Congress that while the primary goal is to continue to increase the size of the military, it is also critical to step up efforts to work with other nations, as well as other US agencies, to bolster fragile governments through economic development and other support.
His report will also reflect his drumbeat for the use of more "soft power" to defeat terror, which includes the greater use of civilians in areas such as political development, communications and training.
Pentagon leaders argue that nontraditional conflicts, such as the insurgents and terrorists facing coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, will be the main military challenges for years to come.
Defeating them, the leaders say, will require more than military hardware.
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