Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) played down the Taiwan issue in his speech to open a 10-day session of the National People's Congress yesterday, repeating China's insistence on the "one-China" principle as a precondition for opening cross-strait talks.
Analysts said the speech showed Beijing was trying to keep a low-profile ahead of Taiwan's coming presidential election.
In a speech that ran nearly two hours, Wen spent only 236 words on Taiwan, repeating Beijing's insistence that the "one country, two systems" formula would achieve peaceful unification with Taiwan.
"We will promote cross-strait cultural and economic exchanges and facilitate the implementation of the three direct links between China and Taiwan. The `one China' principle must be the precondition for both sides to reopen talks," Wen said.
Wen stressed that China firmly opposes Taiwan's independence.
Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Vice Chairman Chen Ming-tong (陳明通) said that, although the Taiwan issue was not at the top of the agenda for the congress, Beijing would not miss the occasion to spread unification propaganda.
Beijing's propaganda is aimed at Taiwan's presidential election and the defensive referendum, Chen said.
The real difficulty in cross-strait dialogue is that Beijing has never admitted the existence of the Republic of China (ROC), he said.
Beneficial exchanges and developments in the cross-strait relationship are possible only when Beijing acknowledges the existence of the ROC and faces the Taiwanese people's determination to pursue peace, Chen said.
He said he was not surprised by some reports in foreign media that China has stepped up military efforts in light of the presidential election.
One of the five conditions set by the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) for China to launch military attacks on Taiwan is that Taiwan "infinitely procrastinate on talks with Beijing," Chen said.
The military threat from China is why the government here must carry out the defensive referendum asking the people's opinions on strengthening anti-missile defenses, he said.
"Taiwan has no intention to ignite an arms race in the Taiwan Strait, but it must beef up its defense capacities," Chen added.
Emile Sheng (盛治仁), a professor of political science at Soochow University, said the balancing act of the US has kept China more muted than in previous presidential elections.
But Sheng said the US has also restrained the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) strategy of provoking China to boost President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) chances for re-election.
"The DPP's attempt to bait China's anger to win support for Chen Shui-bian has its limits. Chen hasn't mentioned his proposal for a new constitution for three months. The Constitution used to be one of his major campaign themes," Sheng said.
Chen Shui-bian shelved the plan possibly because of pressure from the US, Sheng said. The Constitution has been widely regarded as one of the president's steps toward Taiwan's independence.
The period from the March 20 presidential vote to May 20, the presidential swearing-in ceremony, will be the crucial period for Beijing to consider how to adjust its tone over Taiwan, Sheng said.
"If Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and his running mate, People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), are elected, China will feel relaxed because the pair are unlikely to pursue Taiwan's independence," he said.
But if Chen Shui-bian is re-elected, China will be on high alert, Sheng said.
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