China's military modernization and accelerating missile deployments across the Taiwan Strait could indicate an increased willingness to attack Taiwan, the Pentagon warned Wednesday.
While increased economic ties could ease tensions, cross-strait relations will remain sensitive "and could quickly deteriorate if either side perceives that the other has made a provocative statement or action," the Pentagon said in its latest annual report to Congress on China's military power.
"The PRC's ambitious military modernization casts a cloud over its declared preference for resolving differences with Taiwan through peaceful means," the report said.
The report said that China now has 450 short-range ballistic missiles in its Nanjing Military Region aimed at Taiwan, and is expected to add 75 a year for the next several years. If that prediction pans out, the number of missiles could double before the end of the decade.
In addition, the accuracy and lethality of the missile force is increasing, and the People's Liberation Army is developing variants of the CSS-6 missile that could allow them to be deployed further inland.
The 52-page report also warns that China's air force modernization is beginning to erode Taiwan's military superiority. China will eventually have a greater number of modern fighters than Taiwan and its missile force could be used to disrupt and soften Taiwan's air defenses.
"Over the next several years, given current trends, China likely will be able to cause significant damage to all of Taiwan's airfields and quickly degrade Taiwan's ground-based air defenses and associated command and control through a combination of SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles], LACMs [land-attack cruise missiles], anti-radiation weapons, SOF [special operations forces], and other assets, unless Taiwan undertakes the defensive upgrades needed and to which it is committed," the Pentagon said.
"The PLA's offensive capabilities improve as each year passes, providing Beijing, in the absence of an effective response by Taiwan, with an increasing number of credible military options to intimidate or actually attack Taiwan," the report said.
China's military spending will double between 2000 and 2005, the Pentagon projects. It estimates that current defense spending may be three times the officially announced US$20 billion.
"Should China use force, its primary goal likely would be to compel a negotiated solution on terms favorable to Beijing. Beijing would most likely seek a rapid collapse of Taiwan's national will to preclude the US from intervening on Taipei's behalf," the report said.
Taiwan's susceptibility to coercion from threats depends on many factors, the Pentagon calculated. Perhaps the most important, it said, "is the degree to which Taiwan's leaders and populace perceive themselves to be different and separate from the mainland. Will they perceive that there is something real and significant to be protected by resisting the PLC?" the authors ask.
Other factors include Taiwan's assessment of the US and international reaction, the nature of Beijing's demands, Taiwan's military capabilities and the ability of Taiwan's leaders to "forge and maintain a consensus" among the nation's government and people.
While the report spoke favorably about Taiwan's efforts to reform its military, particularly through the two defense reform laws passed in January 2000, it expressed concern over declining defense spending.
"The defense budget's steady decline as a percentage of total government spending increasingly will challenge Taiwan's force modernization," it said.
Taiwan's army "still has major shortcomings as a fighting force," the report said. Despite its strengths, the navy's operations are not well integrated with the army's or air force's and suffers from an inability to conduct multiple missions at the same time. While air force personnel are "highly professional and hard-working," the report says they are overworked and some key pilot training is lacking.
Over the past year, the Pentagon notes, Beijing has toned down its Taiwan rhetoric, stressing its readiness to boost cross-strait ties.
The approach suggests that China wants "to appear to be the party willing to negotiate and to court public opinion in Taiwan, without making substantive compromises" in its Taiwan policy.
"Debate in Beijing over the more coercive options may wane in the run-up to [President] Chen [Shui-bian (
NO HUMAN ERROR: After the incident, the Coast Guard Administration said it would obtain uncrewed aerial vehicles and vessels to boost its detection capacity Authorities would improve border control to prevent unlawful entry into Taiwan’s waters and safeguard national security, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday after a Chinese man reached the nation’s coast on an inflatable boat, saying he “defected to freedom.” The man was found on a rubber boat when he was about to set foot on Taiwan at the estuary of Houkeng River (後坑溪) near Taiping Borough (太平) in New Taipei City’s Linkou District (林口), authorities said. The Coast Guard Administration’s (CGA) northern branch said it received a report at 6:30am yesterday morning from the New Taipei City Fire Department about a
IN BEIJING’S FAVOR: A China Coast Guard spokesperson said that the Chinese maritime police would continue to carry out law enforcement activities in waters it claims The Philippines withdrew its coast guard vessel from a South China Sea shoal that has recently been at the center of tensions with Beijing. BRP Teresa Magbanua “was compelled to return to port” from Sabina Shoal (Xianbin Shoal, 仙濱暗沙) due to bad weather, depleted supplies and the need to evacuate personnel requiring medical care, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said yesterday in a post on X. The Philippine vessel “will be in tiptop shape to resume her mission” after it has been resupplied and repaired, Philippine Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, who heads the nation’s maritime council, said
REGIONAL STABILITY: Taipei thanked the Biden administration for authorizing its 16th sale of military goods and services to uphold Taiwan’s defense and safety The US Department of State has approved the sale of US$228 million of military goods and services to Taiwan, the US Department of Defense said on Monday. The state department “made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale” to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US for “return, repair and reshipment of spare parts and related equipment,” the defense department’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a news release. Taiwan had requested the purchase of items and services which include the “return, repair and reshipment of classified and unclassified spare parts for aircraft and related equipment; US Government
More than 500 people on Saturday marched in New York in support of Taiwan’s entry to the UN, significantly more people than previous years. The march, coinciding with the ongoing 79th session of the UN General Assembly, comes close on the heels of growing international discourse regarding the meaning of UN Resolution 2758. Resolution 2758, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1971, recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the “only lawful representative of China.” It resulted in the Republic of China (ROC) losing its seat at the UN to the PRC. Taiwan has since been excluded from