Former British prime minister Tony Blair won his multimillion dollar deal for his Downing Street memoir with a promise to provide warts-and-all details of his relationship with US President George W. Bush and the war in Iraq. But he is likely to tread more carefully on the battles with his colleague and rival, former chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown, that dogged his decade as prime minister.
On Brown, who is now prime minister, a source close to Blair said, he would be "frank -- but loyal." Since the book would take "at least two years" to write, it was unlikely to appear before the next British general election.
Good deal
The details of Blair's plans for the book -- which publishing experts are already describing as the "political memoir of the decade" -- emerged as one of Britain's top literary agents said the former prime minister had probably forfeited "up to ?1.5 million" (US$3.1 million) by failing to seal a deal immediately on leaving office.
But Eddie Bell, former head of Rupert Murdoch's HarperCollins publishing arm, who handled the memoirs of both former prime minister Margaret Thatcher and her successor, John Major, said the "nearly ?5 million" price tag was still "a very good deal, both for Blair and the publisher."
The winning publisher in what became a two-horse race with HarperCollins was Random House, whose chief executive, Gail Rebuck, said of Blair: "He was an extraordinary prime minister, and this will be an extraordinary book."
Publishing sources said that she sealed the deal by offering "slightly" more than HarperCollins. But they had little doubt that personal ties also played a part in what must have been an agonizing decision for Blair.
Though famously friendly with Murdoch since the Sun switched sides and backed New Labour in the 1997 election, Blair has an even longer association with Rebuck, the wife of the party's veteran political pollster and strategist Lord Gould.
prized memoir
"The importance of the Gail Rebuck connection -- through Philip Gould -- must have been crucial," said Neil Denny, editor-in-chief of the The Bookseller. "Never underestimate the importance of that kind of personal relationship."
Both Denny and Bell have no doubt that the Blair book was a prize very much worth having -- one of the "very few" political memoirs, alongside those of Thatcher and former US president Bill Clinton, which any major publisher would want. They added that books, and deals, such as Blair's were increasingly rare in British politics.
"The time when middle-ranking Cabinet ministers could leave office, write a book and think they will get serious money or attention are gone," Denny said.
Both he and Bell also agreed that, despite reports of secret meetings with a range of eager bidders, only HarperCollins and Random House were ever seriously in the race.
"You needed their worldwide reach, their ability to go big not only in Britain but in America, and to tie up serialization and translation deals worldwide," Bell said.
The result was the largest price tag for any political memoir except Clinton's, at a reported US$10 million to US$12 million.
Within hours of Rebuck's victory, publishers and politicians were speculating on what kind of book Blair would write, how he would write it, and when it would appear. Industry sources, and Blair's circle, began providing answers on Saturday. Though he was said to be determined to craft the book himself rather than use a ghost writer, he will be backed by researchers and editorial supporters.
no diary
Unlike Alastair Campbell, his former spin doctor, who was also published by Random House, Blair did not keep a diary in Downing Street.
But Denny noted: "The advantage of being a prime minister ... is that lots of other people are keeping meticulous records ... If Blair wants to know precisely what he was doing and where on any given day in Downing Street, he'll be able to find out."
One key issue will be the "Brown factor."
A source close to Blair made clear that he was not likely to provide quite as sanitized a portrait as Campbell, who deliberately withheld almost all details of the Blair-Brown feud for a later volume in order to spare Brown in his first months in Downing Street.
But, equally, Blair would be careful to avoid inflicting major damage on his successor, especially if the book were to appear before the next general election.
That seems unlikely, with Brown now widely expected to go the country sometime in the first part of 2009, although he could delay an election until 2010. Publishing experts, including Denny, said on Saturday that by far the most likely date for the Blair memoir was as part of "Christmas 2009," where it was sure to be a bestseller.
Iraq -- the other major issue of controversy for British readers -- will present fewer such problems. Inevitably, the issue that dominated Blair's final years in power will be presented from his own perspective.
Iraq
"Don't look for U-turns," one publishing source said. "But it is sure to be absolutely compelling and full of detail."
Denny said that Blair's book was already certain to be a major publishing event, rivalling only the Thatcher and Clinton memoirs for earning potential and lasting impact. Indeed, he said Blair had the opportunity in some ways to outshine Clinton.
"There are two measures for a book like this," Denny said. "The first is their importance and interest. The second is their readability."
"I get the sense that, though many people bought the Clinton book, it wasn't as gripping a read as Blair's potentially could be," Denny said.
"Clearly he has a way with words and has a compelling story to tell. Like Maggie Thatcher, he had 10 tumultuous years in power. It is sure to be a good book. If he is frank on the two questions that will most preoccupy British readers -- Gordon Brown and Iraq -- it could be not just a good book, but a great book," Denny said.
Blair's thinking, his friends made clear on Saturday, is that he could still write a "great book" while retaining some measure of restraint in dealing with the Brown relationship. They suggested that any reticence about Brown would be more than made up for by revealing new details of Blair's close, yet occasionally strained, dealings with Washington.
"A big part of the audience is in the United States," a friend of Blair said on Saturday night. "American readers are likely to be a lot less interested in Gordon Brown than in the ups and downs of his relationship with Bill Clinton and George Bush."
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