The conflict between doing business with China and Taiwan's national security is the most frequent source of controversy in cross-strait relations. The issue has attracted increasing concern recently as the Taiwan government has apparently decided to relax its "no haste, be patient" policy.
During the Cold War era both economical and political polarizations were seen between the East and the West. The situation today, however, appears to have changed -- as political antagonism is not necessarily accompanied by economic antagonism. Under the circumstances, does this mean the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have already entered the post-Cold War era?
The answer depends on the existence of one of the two following situations: One, the dispute over Taiwan's sovereignty has ended and the two sides have become one. Free economic exchanges between the two sides, both part of the same country, would therefore not be at odds with national security.
Two, the dispute over Tai-wan's sovereignty has ended and the two sides have become separate nations. Free economic exchanges under the circumstances would not necessarily stand in the way of Taiwan's security. Irrespective of whether it is something for which one should be thankful, the situation across the Taiwan Strait happens to be none of the above.
Nevertheless, these two sce-narios can still be seen as models of cross-strait relations in the future. The situation that exists today between the two sides of Strait is somewhere in-between a unified nation and two independent states. If the cross-strait relationship leans toward "one nation" (eg, "one country, two systems"), cross-strait business exchanges tally with Taiwan's security, as it is essentially domestic trade. If the relationship leans toward "two nations," cross-strait business exchanges still tally with Taiwan's security, as they are "international trade."
But the complexity of the issue lies in the ambiguity of the cross-strait relations. There is a lack of consensus on this issue not only across the Strait, but also within Taiwan. Some people in Taiwan are willing to accept Beijing's "one country, two systems," believing that Taiwan would at least be better off than Hong Kong, as Taiwan would get to keep its armed forces. Others have their hearts set on the emergence of Taiwan as a "new country," believing that economic trade relations across the Strait could then become normalized.
But if we keep a cool head, we will realize the key to the cross-strait relations is still the tactful consensus to leave aside the issue of sovereignty for now. This hard-won consensus should not be easily discarded.
In other words, the source of the biggest revelations from the unfolding cross-strait relation during the past decade or so should be the temporary agreement made in 1992, under which the two sides agreed to recognize "one China, with each side free to make its own verbal interpretation of what that means." Irrespective of whether this consensus should be called the "1992 consensus" or "1992 spirit," the fact is this consensus brought about three to five years of smooth cross-strait trade relations.
At least, the two sides actually tried to establish institutionalized cross-strait negotiations and exchange channels between 1990 and 1995. Unfortunately, enmity between the two sides built up as a result of a series of incidents -- including the killing of Taiwanese tourists at Qiandao Lake (千島湖) during a 1994 robbery, former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) remarks about the "sorrow of Taiwanese" revealed by Japanese author Riotaro Shiba's 1995 book and Lee's visit to Cornell University in that same year. The consensus gradually disappeared as the two sides made new interpretations of the other's intentions.
The deadlock between the two can hardly be solved simply by returning to the "1992 consensus." The key is still in seeking a new balance between business exchanges and the sovereignty dispute. If Taiwan gives up its sovereignty in exchange for business, it is guilty of sacrificing ideals on nationalism for the sake of cosmopolitanism, as Dr Sun Yat-sen stated. But if it ignores business and adheres to its position of sovereignty, it may lose sovereignty anyway as its people "vote with their feet" by moving away.
The debate over cross-strait relations should not be over economic freedom and national security -- it should be over economic freedom and the security of our choice of system. If Taiwan is leaning toward Beijing's "one China" system, unlimited cross-strait business exchanges should be encouraged. If the government is leaning toward maintaining its own autonomy, exchanges should be implemented according to the extent of the consensus reached by the two sides.
Although the force of globalization under the WTO has brought a new opportunity for cross-strait relations, it may cause great suffering for both Taiwan and China if they have the wrong expectations. WTO is only an international economic organization; it is not capable of substituting for international organization of sovereign states. Since the WTO lacks the needed dispute management model, Taipei should stop hoping that it will gain an international status equal to that of China's by handling the dispute with Beijing through the WTO.
Therefore, while using the WTO framework to promote their relations, the two sides of the Strait still need to establish a framework which allows the two sides to coexist. Taiwan, especially, should not fold its hands and await death, by saying that the balance of power has shifted to the other side of the Strait which now enjoys competitive advantages.
Wei Min is an editor of the Chinese Administration Review.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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