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Elections will have a 2004 effect

The elections for Taipei and Kaohsiung city mayors and councilors are over. Though only local, a majority of political analysts believe these elections will have far-reaching effects, in particular for the presidential election in 2004.

As a result of the poor economic performance of the DPP government during its two and a half years in power, a major demonstration by farmers took place two weeks ago. The DPP has repeatedly stressed that the local elections must not be associated with the government's political performance. President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) himself said that "this round of elections is not a prelude to the presidential election." However, seeing how the DPP mobilized the whole party as if faced a major enemy, it's not very realistic to say that these elections will be of no relevance to the 2004 election. Small wonder that the sentiment "Kaohsiung must not fall, because if it does, Chen will fall with it" was heard from inside the DPP.

The pan-blue camp, on the other hand, said that these elections were midterm exams for the ruling party and called for voters to deliver a vote of no-confidence in Chen's government. The interaction between the KMT and the DPP in these elections will influence their mode of cooperation during the presidential election.

However we must ask if the result of the yesterdays voting is important enough to influence the outcome of the of 2004. The answer is not necessarily in the affirmative. Looking at past examples, the DPP's win in the 2000 presidential election was not the least bit helpful to the party in the 2001 city mayor and county commissioner elections. So how could the outcome of this round of elections decide a ballot two years from now?

The performance of Chen and his government in the coming year, particularly when it comes to the economy and to cross-strait relations, will of course be an important factor affecting Chen's chances of re-election. This aside, if there are no realignments among Taiwan's political spectrum, the election system itself will -- given the existing voter structure -- be the most important structural factor affecting the outcome of the 2004 presidential election.

Recent elections for administrative leaders at different levels have been a continuous learning experience both for political parties and voters, and there is a clear tendency towards the situation discussed by the French political scientist Maurice Duverger's famous theory, "plurality rule tends to produce two-party competition."

Regardless of whether the one-seat constituencies forced political parties with similar ideas into electoral cooperation or whether voters resorted to tactical voting as a result of the available electoral information, the main structural factor that affected the outcome of the mayoral elections in Kaohsiung and Taipei seems to have been whether the one-seat constituencies could produce a stand-off between the two main candidates. The 2004 presidential election will also be affected by this structural factor.

In the last presidential election, the split within the pan-blue camp resulted in Chen being elected with less than 40 percent of the vote. If the pan-blue camp is unable to consolidate itself for the next presidential election, Chen will, regardless of his performance, still be able to look forward to re-election. If the pan-blue camp really is able to consolidate itself successfully and create a one-seat constituency with two main candidates, a minority of floating votes will influence the outcome of the election. The problem is that contradictions and conflicts within the pan-blue camp were everywhere during the past month. The question of whether the pan-blue camp will be able to put forward a pair of candidates acceptable to supporters of both parties in the 2004 presidential election will be the most crucial factor in deciding who wins it.

Wang Yeh-lih (王業立) is professor of political science at Tunghai University.

Translated by Perry Svensson
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