Will chaos reign when much of Europe starts changing over to euro coins and banknotes on Jan. 1? Will lines clog the aisles of supermarkets as cashiers fumble trying to figure out euro change? Will citizens hoard their new euro coins as collectors' items? Will people feel so ill at ease with the new prices that they just won't buy anything beyond the basics?
If all goes well, the conversion to euro notes and coins could give new power and legitimacy to the common currency being adopted by 12 of the 15 EU countries. Trade could grow, and investment from abroad rise. Some see the move to the euro, currently worth about US$0.90, as a major turning point in the Europeanization of the Continent.
But even as the European Central Bank gets set to unveil the new notes and coins next month, exactly what will happen on "E-day" -- one of the Continent's biggest peacetime undertakings -- remains a subject of intense debate. After years of planning for the switch, EU and Central Bank officials say they are counting on an orderly transition. Still, they admit to worries.
"Concerns, there are lots of them," said Benjamin Angel, the EU official in charge of the practical aspects of the transition. "You can't help but have them when you have such a massive, historic event."
Across the EU doomsayers abound and anxiety is growing, much as it did in anticipation of the millennium bug. The logistics of the conversion are mind-boggling, and leave room for any number of disaster scenarios from a rise in money laundering, counterfeiting and bank heists to inflation triggered by retailers rounding up prices as they convert to euros three years after banks and stock exchanges adopted the currency.
Truckloads of money
As of Jan. 1, some 50 billion new coins and 14.5 billion euro notes are to be pumped into circulation. If the banknotes were laid end to end, one bank official said earlier this year, they would reach to the moon and back twice. Another said that trying to distribute the new money was the equivalent of sending 500,000 trucks out onto the roads of Europe to transport 24 times the weight of the Eiffel Tower.
Some psychologists have warned that the impact of the transition may send people into a kind of economic hibernation. Consumers and retailers could be infuriated when they see the vast discrepancies in prices between countries. Even charities and religious organizations could suffer.
A front-page article in the French daily Le Figaro last month said French churches were fretting. Most parishioners apparently put either five or 10-franc pieces into the collection plate. But no equivalent exists in euros. Depending on whether they choose bigger or smaller coins, the churches could be facing a 30 percent drop in revenue.
Increasingly, consumer groups and retail associations are complaining of a lack of readiness.
"I think we are headed for catastrophe," Christian Huard, the president of a large group representing French consumers, said last month. On Aug. 9, Holger Wenzel, the director of the German Retail Association, attacked the German government on much the same grounds and blasted German banks for taking advantage of the situation by planning exchange fees.
Europeans appear ill-informed about their new currency. A recent EU survey showed that support for the changeover was growing in the 12 affected countries -- France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Portugal, Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg, Austria and Greece. But about half those surveyed in France, Italy and Portugal did not know that the euro was destined to go into circulation in four months.
Surveys show that few consumers have any idea of the value of a euro, despite a growing amount of dual-price ticketing. A EU report issued at the end of March said 80 percent did not remember a single price in euros.
One in five did not understand that their old national currencies would disappear when the euro was introduced. One in four did not understand that euro notes and coins issued in their own countries would be legal tender elsewhere in Europe.
EU officials think this lack of information may change quickly in the next few months. As of September, the European Central Bank will start a major media blitz. And through the fall, most European banks will start sending their customers checkbooks in euros. Until now, euros have been used only in electronic payments and in bookkeeping.
Complex changeover
The changeover is complex: not only do the new bills and coins have to be distributed, but the old notes and coins have to be collected. By most estimates there are even more of them, though no one knows for sure how much cash people have had squirreled away in cookie jars and under mattresses.
Some banks have even taken steps to reinforce their floors because of the additional weight of money in their vaults. Some have offered to send employees to gyms to get them ready to haul around bags of cash.
Most of the conversion will take place as citizens withdraw new money from the bank and ATMs and get euros back in change from stores when they make purchases. But will the stores be willing to keep more cash than usual on hand? And what will happen when transactions become bogged down by two currencies?
Angel, the EU official, said that McDonald's had found that waits doubled or tripled when their employees had to handle two currencies and that mistakes in change were rampant. He said the fast-food chain was planning to double its personnel at the cash registers.
A major supermarket chain, he said, found its lines increased from an average of five people with carts to 20, a situation that crippled movement in its stores. To ease the transition, the chain has decided to offer a rare service in Europe -- baggers.
But surveys show that the vast majority of small and medium businesses have yet to do anything to prepare. Even sales of calculators to convert the currency have been extremely slow, Angel said.
The logistics of moving new and old cash around could be a problem too. In Finland, for instance -- a large and sparsely populated country -- there are only 150 armored trucks. Finnish officials have told the EU that they do not expect to convert their ATM machines to euros by the end of the first week.
Moreover, what if European armored car drivers should decide to strike? Dutch and French drivers have already threatened to do so.
The situation could vary widely depending on the country and how it prepares. The European Central Bank will begin a US$90 million television and print campaign to inform the public starting next month. But some countries have already embarked on media campaigns aimed at easing the changeover. Portugal has even enlisted the church to help educate older people about the transition.
National habits could also play a part in how things go. In some countries, such as Ireland, consumers go often to ATMs and take out small amounts. In others, like Austria, they tend to take out large bills.
In most Eurozone countries, the highest-value euro banknote will be worth far more than the biggest domestic note currently. In Greece, for instance, the note will be worth 17 times the highest drachma note.
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