The WTO said on Friday that it expected 9.5 percent growth in merchandise trade this year, a strong recovery from the steepest commercial contraction since the Great Depression.
The rebound will be led by an 11 percent growth in exports from developing countries such as China, India and Brazil, the WTO said.
Exports from wealthy nations should rise 7.5 percent.
PHOTO: AFP
World trade shrank by 12.2 percent last year, as the economic crisis destroyed consumer confidence, weakened demand, damaged credit lines for exporters and, in some instances, led to increased protectionism from governments.
The WTO said it was the “sharpest decline in more than 70 years” and the world’s richest countries suffered the worst: exports plunged 13.9 percent in the US, 14.8 percent in Europe and 24.9 percent in Japan.
“We see the light at the end of the tunnel,” WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said, “and trade promises to be an important part of the recovery.”
At the current recovery rate, global commerce will return to pre-crisis levels next year.
The WTO used trade volumes and not trade values for its assessment to avoid distortions caused by sharp changes in commodity prices or exchange rates.
In value terms, world trade crashed 23 percent to US$12.15 trillion in 2009, the Geneva-based WTO said. Commercial services exports sunk 13 percent to US$3.31 trillion for their first slowdown in 26 years.
Meanwhile, Lamy on Friday dampened hopes for a swift conclusion to the Doha global trade liberalization talks.
“The outcome is that we are not where we wanted to be,” Lamy said after a week of meetings of the 153 WTO member states on ways to reach a deal on the long-running negotiations this year.
“Yes, we made some limited progress since [2008], but obviously not enough to enter into the final game, which will take some time,” Lamy added.
The Doha talks began in 2001 with a focus on dismantling obstacles to trade for poor nations. However, it has been dogged by intractable disagreements.
These include how much the US and the EU should reduce farm aid and the extent to which developing countries such as India and China should lower tariffs on industrial products.
Successive deadlines to conclude the talks have been repeatedly missed.
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