The IMF’s plan to issue bonds for the first time has attracted several large emerging countries looking to diversify investments to the detriment of the dollar, whose luster is dimming under the mushrooming US budget deficit.
After the G20 major developed and emerging market countries pledged in April to boost the IMF’s resources by US$500 billion, each country must determine just how to deliver.
To help gather such a colossal sum, the 185-nation IMF has decided to take the unprecedented step of issuing bonds.
“IMF staff will present the necessary documentation to the fund’s executive board to allow the issuance of notes as early as possible,” Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the IMF, said on Wednesday.
Three countries lined up for the notes in the space of two weeks: Russia, China, then Brazil.
Both Russia and Brazil are in the market for US$10 billion in bonds, while China is aiming for US$50 billion.
Other G20 members could follow, such as India or Saudi Arabia.
The new bonds will be offered in the IMF accounting unit, Special Drawing Right (SDR), whose value is based on a basket of currencies, rebalanced daily, in which the dollar represents only a 41 percent share.
It is the dollar’s relative weakness in SDRs that has raised market concerns that some countries are seeking to distance themselves from the greenback, the world’s reserve currency.
Those concerns materialized in a spike in bond interest rates when, on Wednesday, the Russian central bank clearly said it wanted to sell US Treasury bonds to buy IMF bonds.
In an extreme scenario, “if countries use this issuance as a way to diversify reserve holdings out of dollars, these sales will prompt liquidation of Treasuries or other dollar-denominated securities held by central banks,” Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics said.
But for Weinberg, the market “is overestimating the importance of this,” given the small volume that IMF bonds would represent in the face of dozens of billions of dollars the US borrows each day.
Ted Truman, an expert on the IMF who advised the US Treasury Department before the G20 summit in London on April 2, also downplayed the impact of the IMF bonds.
“These will not be bonds that will be traded in the market. They are the type of instrument that countries will receive in connection with their short-term lending to the IMF ... I see no symbol in connection with reserve diversification,” he said.
Rather, the economist said demand for the multilateral institution’s bonds was an “indication of the relative external strength of these countries at a time of global economic crisis when in previous global crises their economies would have been severely affected.”
Eleven years ago Russia, for example, defaulted on sovereign loan obligations amid a financial crisis.
For some, the announcements by Russia, China and Brazil are troubling rumbles for the US.
“It is a clear sign that these countries are not comfortable with their large dollar holdings and should be read by the US as an additional signal of market unease about their large budget deficit,” said Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.
The US, meanwhile, has not yet contributed the US$108 billion it pledged to the IMF. The funding is tied to legislation in Congress that is still being debated.
DECOUPLING? In a sign of deeper US-China technology decoupling, Apple has held initial talks about using Baidu’s generative AI technology in its iPhones, the Wall Street Journal said China has introduced guidelines to phase out US microprocessors from Intel Corp and Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) from government PCs and servers, the Financial Times reported yesterday. The procurement guidance also seeks to sideline Microsoft Corp’s Windows operating system and foreign-made database software in favor of domestic options, the report said. Chinese officials have begun following the guidelines, which were unveiled in December last year, the report said. They order government agencies above the township level to include criteria requiring “safe and reliable” processors and operating systems when making purchases, the newspaper said. The US has been aiming to boost domestic semiconductor
Nvidia Corp earned its US$2.2 trillion market cap by producing artificial intelligence (AI) chips that have become the lifeblood powering the new era of generative AI developers from start-ups to Microsoft Corp, OpenAI and Google parent Alphabet Inc. Almost as important to its hardware is the company’s nearly 20 years’ worth of computer code, which helps make competition with the company nearly impossible. More than 4 million global developers rely on Nvidia’s CUDA software platform to build AI and other apps. Now a coalition of tech companies that includes Qualcomm Inc, Google and Intel Corp plans to loosen Nvidia’s chokehold by going
ENERGY IMPACT: The electricity rate hike is expected to add about NT$4 billion to TSMC’s electricity bill a year and cut its annual earnings per share by about NT$0.154 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) has left its long-term gross margin target unchanged despite the government deciding on Friday to raise electricity rates. One of the heaviest power consuming manufacturers in Taiwan, TSMC said it always respects the government’s energy policy and would continue to operate its fabs by making efforts in energy conservation. The chipmaker said it has left a long-term goal of more than 53 percent in gross margin unchanged. The Ministry of Economic Affairs concluded a power rate evaluation meeting on Friday, announcing electricity tariffs would go up by 11 percent on average to about NT$3.4518 per kilowatt-hour (kWh)
OPENING ADDRESS: The CEO is to give a speech on the future of high-performance computing and artificial intelligence at the trade show’s opening on June 3, TAITRA said Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) chairperson and chief executive officer Lisa Su (蘇姿丰) is to deliver the opening keynote speech at Computex Taipei this year, the event’s organizer said in a statement yesterday. Su is to give a speech on the future of high-performance computing (HPC) in the artificial intelligence (AI) era to open Computex, one of the world’s largest computer and technology trade events, at 9:30am on June 3, the Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA) said. Su is to explore how AMD and the company’s strategic technology partners are pushing the limits of AI and HPC, from data centers to