China’s exports surged by nearly 50 percent last month, but analysts warned that Europe’s debt crisis was likely to hurt the recovery in trade.
Exports last month rose 48.5 percent, while imports were up 48.3 percent, the Chinese customs agency said yesterday. The figures exceeded most analysts’ forecasts and produced a monthly trade surplus of US$19.5 billion.
“It’s certainly encouraging, but there’s always room for skepticism given the tepid recovery in global demand,” Royal Bank of Scotland economist Ben Simpfendorfer said. “We may yet see a pullback in exports.”
PHOTO: REUTERS
China’s strong trade figures might rekindle pressure from Washington and other governments for Beijing to let its currency rise. The yuan has been frozen against the dollar since late 2008 to help China’s exporters compete amid weak global demand, but its trading partners say that is distorting trade.
Analysts expect the yuan to rise this year but say China’s leaders will act only once it is clear global demand has recovered.
The 27-nation EU is China’s biggest trading partner and Beijing is closely following its debt problems, which are expected to hurt consumer spending.
Exports have rebounded at least temporarily to pre-crisis levels, hitting US$131.7 billion last month, up from US$120.5 billion in the same month two years ago.
The export surge might be a one-time spike as manufacturers rushed to ship goods ahead of the expected rise of the yuan, which would boost prices abroad, said Zhu Jianfang (朱建方), chief macro analyst for Citic Securities (中信證券) in Beijing.
“We think May and June will be the high point of our trade this year,” Zhu said. “We expect trade to slow in coming months.”
Exports to Europe were up 34.4 percent last month from a year earlier, while those to the US rose 24.8 percent. China’s politically sensitive trade surplus with the US was US$16.7 billion.
Import growth also slowed from its April level of 49.7 percent, which analysts said reflected weaker demand for foreign iron ore and other raw materials.
The government is trying to cool a boom in the real estate industry, which is one of China’s top customers for steel, copper and other building materials.
Separately, property prices in China rose at a slower pace last month from the previous month, official data showed, suggesting measures aimed at cooling the red-hot real-estate market were working.
Prices in major cities rose 12.4 percent on year in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its Web site, down from a record 12.8 percent year-on-year jump in April.
The April figure was the biggest on-year increase for a single month since the survey was widened to 70 cities in July 2005.
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