Growth in developing Asian economies should rise more than 8 percent this year and next year, buoyed by strong performances from China and India, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said yesterday.
In a regional update, it forecast a modest slowing of growth and warned of higher risk factors next year, arising notably from a tightening in credit markets.
"Momentum in [China] and India supports fast growth at the regional level," the Philippines-based lender said, raising the region's GDP forecast for this year to 8.3 percent from 7.6 percent.
PHOTO: AFP
Next year's growth should be 8.2 percent, up from the earlier forecast in March of 7.7 percent, an update of its Asian Development Outlook report released yesterday.
China, on the back of a 13-year high 11.5 percent GDP growth in the first half, is now expected to grow 11.2 percent this year and 10.8 percent next year, up from the earliest forecast of 10.0 and 9.8 percent.
"The now familiar pattern of vigorous investment spending and rapid expansion of exports underpinned growth" in China, the report said.
Chief ADB economist Ifzal Ali said the resulting massive current account surpluses are seeping into domestic liquidity. He said this would put more pressure on Beijing to allow the yuan to appreciate more against the US dollar.
India, which grew by an 18-year high of 9.3 percent in the three months to June, is now expected to expand by 8.5 percent this year and next, up from ADB forecasts earlier this year.
"The brightest story we have to tell is about India," Ali said, praising its economy in reining in inflation.
Developing Asia, which excludes Japan, grew 8.5 percent last year.
The bank revised upward its inflation forecast for the region by a percentage point to 4 percent this year and by 0.6 points to 3.8 percent next year with oil prices expected to persist next year.
The ADB said this year's updated forecast anticipated a modest slowing of the global economy and a mild recovery in the US through next year.
"But the downside risks to growth in 2008 are elevated, and much will depend on whether distress in credit markets deepens and spills over into the wider financial system and real economy," the report said.
It said regional growth outside China and India would be a more modest 5.7 percent this year and 5.6 percent next year.
However, "there is a more general pattern of high and, in some countries, accelerating growth," it said.
It said the Philippines economy should grow 6.6 percent this year while Indonesia, the worst hit by the mid-1997 Asian crisis, was now expected to post GDP growth of 6.2 percent this year and 6.4 percent next year.
"Inflation has been brought to heel. Consumption and investment are up sharply, the business and investment climate is improving and we are seeing signs that Indonesia might finally break out of the 5 percent range and go beyond the 6 percent growth rate," Ali said.
The forecast for East Asia was raised to 8.9 percent this year and 8.7 percent next year, while Southeast Asia's forecast was upgraded to 6.1 percent for both years.
South Asian growth would also rise to 8.1 percent for both years, it added.
A US recession could clip growth in developing Asia by between 1 and 2 percentage points, it said, but the impact should be "modest and short-lived."
Taiwanese Olympic badminton men’s doubles gold medalist Wang Chi-lin (王齊麟) and his new partner, Chiu Hsiang-chieh (邱相榤), clinched the men’s doubles title at the Yonex Taipei Open yesterday, becoming the second Taiwanese team to win a title in the tournament. Ranked 19th in the world, the Taiwanese duo defeated Kang Min-hyuk and Ki Dong-ju of South Korea 21-18, 21-15 in a pulsating 43-minute final to clinch their first doubles title after teaming up last year. Wang, the men’s doubles gold medalist at the 2020 and 2024 Olympics, partnered with Chiu in August last year after the retirement of his teammate Lee Yang
FALSE DOCUMENTS? Actor William Liao said he was ‘voluntarily cooperating’ with police after a suspect was accused of helping to produce false medical certificates Police yesterday questioned at least six entertainers amid allegations of evasion of compulsory military service, with Lee Chuan (李銓), a member of boy band Choc7 (超克7), and actor Daniel Chen (陳大天) among those summoned. The New Taipei City District Prosecutors’ Office in January launched an investigation into a group that was allegedly helping men dodge compulsory military service using falsified medical documents. Actor Darren Wang (王大陸) has been accused of being one of the group’s clients. As the investigation expanded, investigators at New Taipei City’s Yonghe Precinct said that other entertainers commissioned the group to obtain false documents. The main suspect, a man surnamed
US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer began talks with high-ranking Chinese officials in Switzerland yesterday aiming to de-escalate a dispute that threatens to cut off trade between the world’s two biggest economies and damage the global economy. The US delegation has begun meetings in Geneva with a Chinese delegation led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng (何立峰), Xinhua News Agency said. Diplomats from both sides also confirmed that the talks have begun, but spoke anonymously and the exact location of the talks was not made public. Prospects for a major breakthrough appear dim, but there is
The number of births in Taiwan fell to an all-time monthly low last month, while the population declined for the 16th consecutive month, Ministry of the Interior data released on Friday showed. The number of newborns totaled 8,684, which is 704 births fewer than in March and the lowest monthly figure on record, the ministry said. That is equivalent to roughly one baby born every five minutes and an annual crude birthrate of 4.52 per 1,000 people, the ministry added. Meanwhile, 17,205 deaths were recorded, resulting in a natural population decrease of 8,521, the data showed. More people are also leaving Taiwan, with net
RSS