Sometimes 1,500 is bigger than 13,000. The Standard & Poor's 500 index's move above 1,500 after seven years marks a psychological milestone for the index, which most investors should care about more than the oft-cited Dow Jones industrial average. Although the Dow grabs the headlines, the S&P 500 is the one that millions of individual investors are making money on -- it's the basis for many widely held mutual funds.
The S&P's climb puts it within range of its March 2000 closing high of 1,527.46 -- when stocks were inflated by the dot-com boom -- but observers say the index's push into its current range is more justified on this return trip.
"Our view is that's where we ought to be because we have never had this sort of corporate profitability -- ever," said Jeffrey Layman, director of investment services at BKD Wealth Advisors in Springfield, Missouri.
He contends that the 1,500 level in 2000 "was probably not rational," given overheated stock valuations.
If no one in the neighborhood mows their lawn, perhaps the grass doesn't look as overgrown.
"In the meantime, corporate earnings have more than doubled," Layman said.
He said that because the S&P 500 isn't stuffed with as many technology stocks as in 2000 and because it now contains more financial services companies among its 500 components, the index reflects what is now driving the economy.
"It's one of the reasons the S&P is not trading at new highs," he said of some of the remaining technology companies.
"The Dow really didn't have much of technology in it," he added.
The Dow -- Wall Street's best-known index -- has been the flashier of the two lately. The Dow, which reflects the performance of 30 big-name stocks, has recorded 18 record closes since the start of the year and 40 since the beginning of October. The Dow's latest record finish, its third in as many sessions, came on Thursday.
Though the S&P 500's gains command less attention on Main Street, both indexes have been driven by higher and better earnings.
Dave Goerz, chief investment officer at HighMark Funds in San Francisco, contends the S&P 500 has more room to run. He predicts the index will hit 1,550 by the end this year and 1,700 by the end of next year.
"We prefer to look at the S&P because we think it's more broadly representative and more closely tied to what's happening in the economy," he said.
But economic concerns can dent the performance of any stock index. Goerz contends the sharp pullback in stocks that began in China on Feb. 27 and cascaded to other stock markets around the world unnerved US investors and overshadowed the robust profits US companies were pulling in.
Beyond the February pullback, Wall Street has been dogged by concerns about a slumping housing market and an increase in the number of soured home loans among people with poor credit.
So while Wall Street has been predicting a slowing economy will eat into corporate profits as well as the stock market's performance, stronger economies abroad have helped inoculate US companies from a slowdown at home. That's because many big companies, like those in the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials, have operations abroad and can rely on sales there to prop up profits here.
"Export growth has been the highest it's been in 12 years," Goerz said. "We're starting to see more goods and services exported overseas."
And companies have done fewer financial two-steps in recent years when reporting profits because of tightened regulations. It's harder now to make earnings appear rosier than they truly are.
The stronger earnings and the stock-market gains that have followed are important for so many investors because many mutual funds and other investments are tied to performance of the S&P.
So for many investors, the S&P 500 is the number to watch. Goerz expects the S&P and other indexes will push higher, despite bumping their heads on all-time highs.
"When markets set record there is a tendency to say `They can't go any higher.' But this is what equity markets do. Markets should set records," he said.
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