China expects to start making homegrown large commercial aircraft by 2020, an aviation industry official said yesterday, raising the possibility of future competition for Boeing and Airbus in the nation's booming market for new planes.
The ambitious target points to rising confidence among officials and the government-funded aircraft industry following apparent success in developing China's first commercial jet aircraft, the mid-size ARJ-21 regional jet, the first of which is due to fly next year.
With China expected to buy 2,230 new planes between now and 2025, the government has fast-tracked development plans to ensure that its own companies grab a share.
The large aircraft project is underpinned by China's strong economic growth, technology advances and brawny manufacturing base, Liu Daxiang (劉大響) of China Aviation Industry Corp I (中國航空工業第一集團), or AVIC I, was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua news agency.
"We are now fairly well conditioned for making large aircraft," said Liu, deputy head of the firm's science and technology development department, and a delegate to the National People's Congress meeting this month in Beijing.
China's aviation ambitions have stumbled along for decades, but experts said the latest plan appeared to be plausible given the technological prowess China has gained from building parts for foreign makers. An agreement with Airbus to open a final assembly line in China for its mid-size A320 aircraft will be particularly advantageous, they said.
"From a technical standpoint, it is realistic," said Richard Pinkham, a Singapore-based analyst with the Center for Asia Pacific Aviation.
The 13-year timeframe allowed for plenty of lead time, he said.
Liu said a large aircraft program would spawn new technological advances and secondary industries. He gave no precise details about the size of the plane, although large aircraft are generally considered to have about 200 seats and a payload of 100 tonnes.
China has set a target of completing designs for a large aircraft by 2010. China has also proposed producing its own aircraft engines.
Underscoring the national prestige China attracts to such projects, Liu said large aircraft development would "inspire the nation'' similar to the hugely successful manned space program.
A large Chinese jet would likely find a market in China, where the government still exerts strong control over state-owned airlines.
However, Pinkham warned such a plane would face major difficulties establishing itself in the international market.
"They are going to have to have some seriously competitive pricing before they can convince a major airline to try their planes," he said.
Boeing Co took an early lead in Chinese aircraft market, selling more than 700 planes here since 1972, including 60 orders for the company's new 787 Dreamliner.
Chinese airlines also have about 100 Airbus planes in their fleets with dozens more on order, including five of the company's troubled A380 super jumbo.
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