Facing a murky economic outlook on the one hand and US elections on the other, the Federal Reserve looks set to hold interest rates steady this week.
The US central bank's federal open market committee (FOMC) will decide at its latest meeting, a two-day affair over tomorrow and Wednesday, to keep its headline rate at 5.25 percent, economists believe.
"There's no reason for them to do anything, expect stick to their wait-and-see policy," Global Insight economist Nigel Gault said.
"They still claim the economy is slowing but it is not clear by how much, so there's no urgency to cut interest rates," he said.
In August, the Fed called off a long-running campaign of hikes by standing pat for the first time in 17 meetings.
The world's biggest economy had slowed from a 5.6 percent acceleration in the first quarter to grow by just 2.6 percent in the second.
Data since then have suggested the economy is still flagging, but not by so much that the US is at risk of recession. Inflation, though, has remained stubbornly high for the Fed's liking.
Leading the way down for the US economy is the housing market, which is hitting the brakes hard after a years-long boom that did much to stoke consumer spending.
But for Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus, "the Fed is uncertain about the ultimate impact of the housing correction."
Meanwhile over on Wall Street, market betting that the Fed will stay on hold for the foreseeable future has helped propel the Dow Jones index of blue chip shares over the 12,000 mark for the first time ever.
Overshadowing the Fed meeting is the Nov. 7 election for Congress. Opposition Democrats believe they have a fighting chance of retaking one or both houses.
Historically, the Fed has been reluctant to shift tack on monetary policy just before elections, unless its hand is forced by economic or market events.
"The Fed is in the fortunate position that economic factors argue for no change," Gault said.
"If economic data were pointing towards a rate hike, that would make things a little tricky for the Fed with the election just coming," he said.
In fact, most economists expect no change from the Fed for some time to come.
"The next move will be a cut, but I'm not looking for that until the middle of next year," Societe Generale economist Stephen Gallagher said.
FALSE DOCUMENTS? Actor William Liao said he was ‘voluntarily cooperating’ with police after a suspect was accused of helping to produce false medical certificates Police yesterday questioned at least six entertainers amid allegations of evasion of compulsory military service, with Lee Chuan (李銓), a member of boy band Choc7 (超克7), and actor Daniel Chen (陳大天) among those summoned. The New Taipei City District Prosecutors’ Office in January launched an investigation into a group that was allegedly helping men dodge compulsory military service using falsified medical documents. Actor Darren Wang (王大陸) has been accused of being one of the group’s clients. As the investigation expanded, investigators at New Taipei City’s Yonghe Precinct said that other entertainers commissioned the group to obtain false documents. The main suspect, a man surnamed
DEMOGRAPHICS: Robotics is the most promising answer to looming labor woes, the long-term care system and national contingency response, an official said Taiwan is to launch a five-year plan to boost the robotics industry in a bid to address labor shortages stemming from a declining and aging population, the Executive Yuan said yesterday. The government approved the initiative, dubbed the Smart Robotics Industry Promotion Plan, via executive order, senior officials told a post-Cabinet meeting news conference in Taipei. Taiwan’s population decline would strain the economy and the nation’s ability to care for vulnerable and elderly people, said Peter Hong (洪樂文), who heads the National Science and Technology Council’s (NSTC) Department of Engineering and Technologies. Projections show that the proportion of Taiwanese 65 or older would
Democracies must remain united in the face of a shifting geopolitical landscape, former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) told the Copenhagen Democracy Summit on Tuesday, while emphasizing the importance of Taiwan’s security to the world. “Taiwan’s security is essential to regional stability and to defending democratic values amid mounting authoritarianism,” Tsai said at the annual forum in the Danish capital. Noting a “new geopolitical landscape” in which global trade and security face “uncertainty and unpredictability,” Tsai said that democracies must remain united and be more committed to building up resilience together in the face of challenges. Resilience “allows us to absorb shocks, adapt under
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) yesterday said it is building nine new advanced wafer manufacturing and packaging factories this year, accelerating its expansion amid strong demand for high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The chipmaker built on average five factories per year from 2021 to last year and three from 2017 to 2020, TSMC vice president of advanced technology and mask engineering T.S. Chang (張宗生) said at the company’s annual technology symposium in Hsinchu City. “We are quickening our pace even faster in 2025. We plan to build nine new factories, including eight wafer fabrication plants and one advanced